Saturday, September 25, 2004
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: Florida under the gun again
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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Ivan's alleged rebirth was a novelty, but Hurricane Jeanne is a more serious matter, now that the indecisive hurricane is on a steady westward gait, at last.
With the same high pressure that built in fall-like weather behind Ivan's first and most powerful incarnation last week now moving off the east coast, Jeanne is finally getting a push from the high's clockwise motion and appears likely headed to a rendezvous with storm-fatigued Florida by late in the weekend.
Yes, indeed, it could be a fourth hurricane hit of the season on the Sunshine State.
Jeanne's winds are 100 mph now, about the same as Frances was it made landfall on Florida's east coast early in September, and about the same also as Isabel's when it hit the Outer Banks last year. Jeanne has ingested some dry air, had it's hair messed up by some shearing winds aloft, and is now crossing waters that it cooled on its first trip through before it looped back on itself. But there are warmer waters and more favorable conditions ahead, so there is some fear that Jeanne could strengthen.
Though Charley, Frances and Ivan have been the headliners in the U.S., it is Jeanne that has been the most deadly. As "only" a tropical storm, its flooding rains killed more than 1,000 in Haiti. Now, it could add to the legacy of this active tropical season in the U.S.
Beyond its landfall, which is still much in question, is where it will go next. While most forecast guidance points to a coast-hugging track to the northeast, there is some fear that an approaching cold front and low pressure trough over the Great Lakes won't have enough of a tug on Jeanne, and she'll drift farther inland. Such a track could again give us some tropical weather effects by Monday or Tuesday, though its doubtful we'll get either the flooding of Frances or the tornadoes of Ivan. The storm should be moving faster, and we'll be on the west side. Traditionally, we have not got lots of rain on the west side of Atlantic landfalling systems, though there are notable exceptions.
I'll keep up with it over the weekend, and you can tune into the map link at the top and get the latest position and track forecast from the National Hurricane Center. On Monday morning, we'll take a look at Jeanne anew and see what it holds for us.
Ivan, meanwhile, like most boxers and basketball players, was not nearly in its comeback what it was the first time around. There were few reports of even 2 inches of rain on the Texas-Louisiana coast today. Some models show Ivan circling back into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days. A second comeback? Don't even think about it.
