Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Weather columnist Kevin Myatt: We keep missing worst of storms
Kevin Myatt is The Roanoke Times' weather columnist.
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This has been the Great Plains' winter, not ours.
That region has been the big top for the meteorological circus. Our area has been a dull side show.
A year ago, the Plains states were turning crispy in a drought.
This winter, the central United States has been the focus of one major storm system after another, spreading heavy snow, torrential rain and severe thunderstorms over a wide area. It has caused a lot of hardship, to be sure, but the drought has been relieved in most areas of the central U.S.
The latest episode occurred over the weekend. Blizzard conditions spread from eastern Colorado and western Kansas -- a region that has been repeatedly pummeled by blinding snow this winter -- toward the western Great Lakes, which had largely been spared this winter.
Farther south, warm, moist air streaming out of the Gulf of Mexico saturated the atmosphere for heavy rain and fired up instability that led to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. In southeast Arkansas, 800 people are out of work in the town of Dumas because their workplaces were simply wiped out.
We didn't miss out entirely on this storm, getting a mix of rain, freezing rain and sleet Sunday, but far away from the centers of these big Plains low-pressure systems, we're just not getting the same intensity of effects as places to the west. It's been that way all winter.
The whole pattern is about to repeat itself, as another strong low blows up in the middle of the country and moves toward the Great Lakes the next couple of days.
Again, there will be heavy snow propelled by high winds, heavy rain and severe weather. The storm will be farther north than the one over the weekend, with the heavy snow concentrated in the Dakotas and Minnesota and the thunderstorms toward the Tennessee River valley.
By Thursday, we will feel the effects of this storm. Expect a rainy day, especially in the afternoon and evening, and don't be surprised to hear a rumble or two of thunder. It will be too mild for ice or snow this time around, in the 40s and 50s, mostly.
These storms, with so much Gulf of Mexico warmth and moisture wrapped into them and spawning outbreaks of severe thunderstorms, are really more fitting for spring than winter.
If these things keep firing this spring as they have most of the winter, drought will not be an issue for most areas east of the Rockies. But there would likely be a lot more tornadoes than there have been the last couple of springs.
This particular storm will whip some cold air back into the area over the weekend and into early next week. There is a window of time coming up when some March snow will be possible, but these windows are getting narrower and farther apart.
If you like snow, it just hasn't been our winter. Most recent winters haven't been. On Saturday, I'll take a look at one major reason why that's been the case.




