Kevin Myatt

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About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

When Alaska warms up, the East chills out

"The day it snowed in Miami." That was the label in the upper right corner of the Miami Herald's front page on Jan. 20, 1977.

The large headline not far below blared: "Snow Falls on S. Florida." Though no snow was officially reported at Miami International Airport, a light dusting clung to palm fronds in many areas of the Miami metropolitan area, as well as in Tampa, Orlando and other parts of Florida.

Meanwhile, deep in the heart of Alaska, temperatures as high as 40 degrees melted what little snow was on the ground.

The weather world had turned topsy-turvy. But the two odd extremes were directly related. It was so cold in Florida and throughout the eastern United States that frigid winter 30 years ago because it got so warm in Alaska. (Click here for PDF version of map)

A winter weather pattern similar to the one in 1976-77 is in place now. Relatively warm air, under a high-pressure system aloft, is poking north into Alaska. This in turn dislodges frigid air from the Arctic Circle and forces it south across Canada and into the eastern half of the United States.

The weather pattern isn't as extreme as in 1976-77, and isn't likely to become so. Nor is it likely to last as long. The cold pattern of 1976-77 took up residence for about two months. We may get two or three more weeks out of this pattern, and even that will be broken by some brief warm-ups, including one today that could send some temperatures into the 50s.

January 1977 was the coldest month on record in Roanoke, with an average temperature of 23.6 degrees. The average January temperature over the past 58 years in Roanoke is about 36 degrees. The current January average temperature is about 43 degrees, because of extreme warmth at the beginning of the month.

The average low for January 1977 was 14.9 degrees, and the average high was barely above freezing, 32.3 degrees. The temperature dipped below zero twice, falling as low as minus 4.

It was not just Southwest Virginia shivering. As an April 1977 recap of the extreme winter in Weatherwise magazine notes, several cities in the Ohio Valley and Southeast set cold-month records that year. The month and the winter as a whole ranked among the coldest almost everywhere east of the Mississippi River.

Snowfall, however, did not come in buckets that winter. Because the upper air flow was from Canada almost all winter, with little input from the Gulf of Mexico, it was mostly dry. Roanoke had a little more than 19 inches, which is about 3 inches below an average winter's snowfall.

The biggest snowfall of the winter was just a little more than 4 inches -- but the snow that did fall didn't melt fast.

Many snow lovers in Southwest Virginia are suffering now because a pattern far too warm for snow has been replaced by one that's cold enough but too dry. The western slope areas of West Virginia and some higher elevations in Virginia are doing OK on snow because of northwest winds carrying Great Lakes moisture. But for most of us around here, that means just flurries.

In 1977, winter didn't drag on into March the way it has in some of our recent mild winters. The first couple of weeks of February were extremely cold and even less snowy than January. But by Feb. 26, the temperature shot up to 76 degrees. Winter ended quickly and decisively, with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s most of March, very close to 80 late in the month.

Broadly speaking, most of the weather patterns we experience are a repeat of something before, but they differ in details.

By late next week, we may know whether this pattern can generate a larger winter storm than 1977 could. There are some signals that a large storm will form somewhere in the eastern half of the United States. That doesn't necessarily mean it would bury us. It could even track to the west and bring a brief mild shot of rain before ushering in a cold blast more severe than what we've seen this week. Many options are still on the table.

Also, 1977's pattern of Arctic chill suddenly breaking into midspring weather doesn't mean this one will do the same. What seems more likely at this point is going from shots of very cold and dry weather to a pattern that is less cold but more wet, meaning borderline rain/snow situations in much of February.

But that's looking too far ahead. It's far easier to look 30 years back rather than a week or two ahead.