Kevin Myatt

Latest entries from the Weather Journal blog

• Weather Journal remains on break
• Coastal low prompts Southwest Virginia flooding
• Hurricane Ida: Something extraordinary may be happening

About Kevin

Kevin Myatt grew up in Arkansas to the tune of tornado sirens and the rhythm of hailstones, aspiring to be a meteorologist before his studies and career were turned to journalism instead. Though he often chases storms, he prefers living in the cooler, more tranquil weather of the Blue Ridge. He moved to Roanoke in 1999 to take a job on the copy desk of The Roanoke Times; writing headlines and editing copy is his principal work for the newspaper today.

Each May, Kevin assists Pulaski County High School / Virginia Tech meteorology instructor Dave Carroll in leading college and high school students to the Plains to observe severe weather firsthand. The accounts of many of his storm chases can be found here on the storm chasing page of his weather blog on roanoke.com.

Kevin was an editor for "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," a book written by D.C.-area weather enthusiast Rick Schwartz and published by Blue Diamond Books that documents hurricanes striking the mid-Atlantic states since colonial times.

The Weather Journal column began in 2003 and appears on Friday's Virginia section front in The Roanoke Times. The Weather Journal blog began in 2006 and follows weather day-by-day between the larger columns.

We may be living in cold, historic times

For the second consecutive Tuesday, I am writing a column for Wednesday's newspaper as a potential winter storm is approaching Southwest Virginia.

And just as with last week's Alberta clipper snowfall, I don't know what the final result will be as I write this. Look out your window and find out. There will probably be many different outcomes at different locations within our circulation area.

So I will write about another topic, but something related to the chilly weather we've been having of late.

It might surprise you that this run of cold has a chance of being something historic.

Through Monday, Roanoke's average temperature for February was 29.2 degrees.

If the month had ended Monday, this would be the coldest February on record at Roanoke, edging out the only other two Februarys with an average temperature below 30 degrees -- February 1978 (29.5 degrees) and February 1979 ( 29.3 degrees).

Many of our coldest month records date to the late 1970s, one of the coldest periods on record nationally, especially in the East.

All but one of the first 12 days of this month have averaged below normal in temperature. Monday was the first day we reached 50 this month, but even it averaged a degree below normal with a low of 24. Normals this time of year are in the upper 40s for highs and upper 20s for lows.

Feb. 5, with a high of 25 and a low of 12, has been our coldest day this winter, averaging 18 degrees below normal. Feb. 6 had a lower minimum temperature, 10, before climbing to 35 to raise that day's average temperature a bit above that of the preceding day.

Compare Feb. 5 to Jan. 14, when the high was 72 and the low was 54, averaging 28 degrees above normal. What a study in contrasts!

We're nearly halfway through the month on a pace to challenge the record for coldest February. And the upcoming weather pattern might give that record a chance of coming to fruition.

The storm system moving through now will whip northwest winds on us the next few days, bringing a new blast of Arctic air. This will last into the weekend, with some nights of very low temperatures and days with highs struggling to reach the 30s.

So we will be nearly two-thirds through the month by early next week with temperatures quite likely still averaging below 30 for the month. The Arctic pattern is likely to relax next week, but even average cold would keep us within striking distance of a record cold month.

It would then come down to the last week of February. A reloading of the Arctic air mass could seal the record cold February for us. A more moderate cold pattern would probably keep this February within the coldest five or so on record, while a warming would lift the averages away from record territory.

But as of yet, this extreme cold snap has had little snow to show for it outside of last week's quick thump. The repeated Arctic air masses have crushed storm systems trying to move through them.

This week's storm found a gap between Arctic air masses, taking most of the snow well north of us and putting us on the fence between rain and freezing rain.

And once again, I'll defer to your observations about which side of the fence that fell on at your house.