Thursday, January 11, 2007
Hokies primed to dance
Randy King
Randy King's Tech Insider is exclusive to roanoke.com and is posted by 5 p.m. Thursdays in season.
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Two months to the day before the participants for the NCAA men's basketball tournament will be announced, I've decided to go ahead and say it: Drum roll, please ... Virginia Tech will make the 65-team field.
Memo to Hokie fans: Go ahead and clear your work schedule for March 15-19 and squirrel away some extra cash for a trip to an NCAA regional. Don't even think twice about it. The Hokies will be dancing somewhere.
OK, I know that's a pretty bold prediction to make at this point. Shoot, Tech has 14 ACC games left to play. No big deal, I say.
While 99 percent of the nation may have been stunned by Tech's 69-67 overtime victory at Duke last Saturday, it was no real shocker here. Shoot, the Hokies were only an 8.5-point underdog in Las Vegas. That's a chicken-feed spread for a non-ranked foe playing in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
While this is the worst Duke team I've seen in quite some time -- the Blue Devils lost again Wednesday at Georgia Tech to fall to 0-2 in the ACC -- in no way am I about to short-change Tech's victory in Durham. The Hokies exposed the then-No. 5-ranked Blue Devils for the overrated farce they are. On a neutral court, I'll take Tech's talent and experience, particulary at guard, over the young Dookies at pick 'em all day long.
The ramifications of Tech winning that game are much bigger than the actual victory itself. First, a win at Duke will be huge on the resume when the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee sits down on March 11 and maps its bracket. Second, it's the kind of landmark triumph that Seth Greenberg's Hokies desperately needed to totally convince themselves that they have the goods to play with anybody anywhere.
If you don't love Tech's guards, then you don't know hoops. Most in the nation may not know it, but seniors Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon combine to form one of the best guard duos in the country.
Anything these two can't do? Tell me. Shoot, they can score ... Dowdell averages 16.6 points, Gordon 12.5 points ... ranking Nos. 1 and 2 on the club. Moreover, each of the fourth-year starters are capable, not to mention undaunted, when being required to make a big jump shot or drive and create a shot at crunch time. Collectively, the pair's assist-to-turnover ratio is almost 2-to-1 (122 assists/65 turnovers).
What I like even more is what the two get done on the defensive end. Each's height -- they're both 6 feet 3 -- and sheer athleticism make them an automatic mismatch for most opposing guards. Talk about ball-hawkers. Can't rest a second against these two. Dowdell has 36 steals; Gordon has 40.
Now that 6-9 forward Coleman Collins, other fourth-year starting senior in the lineup, is exhibiting signs of finally emerging from his mysterious hibernation, the Hokies finally have some inside ammuntion to counter on both ends of the court.
The glue between the guards and Collins is junior swingman Deron Washington, a long-armed 6-7 jumping jack who run the floor all night long. Talk about athleticism. In a play I won't soon forget, Washington took off in flight and completely hurdled befuddled 6-1 Duke guard Chris Paulus for a layup on a fastbreak basket Saturday.
How huge was Tech's win at Duke? Humongous. First, winning in Cameron -- no matter how down Duke is -- helps salve the wounds from two very bad non-conference losses so far. The first one was a 71-68 loss to a now 5-9 Western Michigan club in Orlando, Fla, in which Tech was a 13-point favorite. The other sorry loss came Dec. 30 at Marshall, where the 11.5-point favored Hokies choked and gagged, 59-58.
Tech's other losses weren't such unpardonable sins. They lost 69-64 to a now 12-4 Southern Illinois club in the Orlando tournament. The other was a 63-63-62 frog-strangler at now 10-4 George Washington on Dec. 3 that dropped the Hokies to 4-3.
In a statistic I had to check with three sources before I could buy it as fact, the Duke contest marked the first time in 16 games that Tech had been an underdog this season.
The Hokies were a scant 1.5-point fave over Southern Ilinois and a 4-point chalk at GW.
That established, Tech's 12-4 overall mark shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. According to the Las Vegas smart guys, the Hokies should be sitting at 15-1 right now.
Precisely, that's why the Duke conquest was so paramount. Picking that one off made one for the pair of bad slips vs. Western Michigan and Marshall. Shoot, even the thoroughbred programs usually have one of those a season.
Moreover, it set Tech up at 2-0 in the ACC with No. 1-ranked North Carolina coming to Cassell Coliseum on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. Unwinnable game? Not hardly. My educated guess is the Tar Heels won't be but a 6- to 8-point favorite in Cassell, where Tech is 8-0.
Barring a major injury or total implosion in the second half of the season, Saturday's contest will be the last time Tech won't be favored at home the rest of the way. The Hokies will be double-digit chalks over North Carolina State and Miami. If the games were played today, the Hokies would be scant favorites (2-4 points) over Maryland and Clemson and Boston College, and somewhere in the 7-8 point range over Virginia.
In their final seven ACC road games, the only place the Hokies will be a double-digit dog is at Carolina. Other than at Georgia Tech, where they would be a 8-9 point 'dog or so today, Tech will small-sized pups at Florida State, BC and Virginia. Tech will be middle-range favorites (4-6 points) at Miami and N.C. State.
All that conjecture make you dizzy? Same here. Add it up, and if Tech does what it's supposed to do, the it goes 8-6 and finishes 20-10 overall and 10-6 in the ACC, or at worst, 19-11 and 9-7.
Best of all, the Duke win now gives Tech some margin for error. A 6-8 finish in the final 14 games would leave Tech 18-12 overall and 8-8 in the league, numbers that still figure to be NCAA worthy
In his fourth season in Blacksburg, Greenberg has his chance now to end Tech's 11-year exodus from the NCAA. The bid is there for the taking. All he and his players need to do now is take care of business.
