Friday, December 02, 2005
Tech has heavy favorite’s role covered
Randy King
Randy King's Tech Insider is exclusive to roanoke.com and is posted by 5 p.m. Thursdays in season.
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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- Virginia Tech a 14-point favorite over Florida State in a football game played in the Sunshine State? Can’t believe it? Well, neither can the Hokies.
"We don’t consider ourselves a favorite in this game," senior tight end Jeff King said. "History will tell you it hasn’t gone that way. So regardless of what the spread is, we’re not putting much stock in that."
Somebody is. The heavy number hasn’t scared away any Tech action in Las Vegas, where the spread hasn’t budged since being hung on the tote boards Sunday night. Translation: The money going on both sides has been split down the middle to this point.
I find that surprising. I certainly thought there would have been enough backing of Bobby Bowden’s bunch by this morning that the number would have dropped a point or two, at least. Ask bettors. They’ll tell you there’s a whale of a difference between 14 and 13, no matter which side you’re on.
A lot of people have asked me this week how long has it been since FSU was such a huge underdog? Curious myself, I went to my "for amusement only" archives for the answer. In mid-November of 2001, the ’Noles were 16-point ’dogs at Florida, where they proceeded to get hammered 37-16. Of course, two games later, a 7-4 FSU club beat an 8-3 Tech team 30-17 in the Gator Bowl here.
Besides that flop at Florida in ’01, FSU has been a double-digit underdog only one other time in the past decade. The ’Noles were a 13-point pup at Miami in 2002, easily covering in a 28-27 loss.
Since 1995, FSU has been an underdog only 10 times in 126 games. Shoot, in 50 games from 1997-2000, the Seminoles were favored every time they hit the field.
Good news for Tech backers? FSU is 3-7 straight up and 4-6 against the spread in those 10 games in which it was cast as the underdog.
While it has been decimated by injuries this season, FSU still has plenty of talent left in the till. The ’Noles have a great crop of wide receivers and a solid 1-2 tandem at tailback. One of the nation’s best linebacking corps keys a front seven on defense that can play with anybody.
That said, why did Vegas make Tech such a heavy favorite?
Recent trends, that’s why. FSU has covered the spread only once the past two months. Since winning at Boston College on Oct. 1, Bowden’s team is 1-6 vs. the number. The only FSU cover in that span was a close shave against pitiful Duke in which the 30-point-favored ’Noles won by 31.
In the past four games, FSU has lost to the spread by a whopping average of 21-plus points. The biggest debacle came last Saturday at Florida, where 3.5-point dog FSU was pounded 34-7.
Meanwhile, Tech has continued to be a consistent money-maker for its backers. The Hokies, who have been favored in every game this season as was predicted here in preseason, are 9-2 vs. the number this season. The only times the Hokies have failed for their backers were against Marshall (won 41-7 as a 35-point chalk) and against Miami, in which they got ripped 27-7 as a six-point favorite.
Unlike many of the nation’s elite teams, Tech has been able to handle the big-favorite’s role very well. Tech is 6-1 against the line in the seven games it has been a double-digit favorite this season.
Nonetheless, laying 14 to FSU looks like stout medicine.
My Las Vegas source informed me this week that the line on Saturday’s ACC Championship game would have been Tech minus-7 two weeks ago. However, Tech’s closing routs of Virginia and North Carolina, combined with FSU’s 27-point point pounding in Gainesville last Saturday, so impressed the oddsmakers that the number was jacked significantly. I’m told the game hit the floor last Sunday night at Tech minus-12, but heavy early play on the Hokies shot the number to 14 in a matter of hours.
As of noon today, that’s where the number still sits.
Who do I like? Lay the lumber. Tech will win the game easily. Of course, there will be the usual sweat against the number. Tech by 17 to 21 points. Bet on it.
Just for fun, let’s look ahead. A victory ships Tech to the Jan. 3 Orange Bowl in Miami, where they will face Penn State (10-1) and yet another coaching legend, Joe Paterno. Once again, the Hokies will be the favorite ... somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 to 4 points, I’m told.
In fact, there are only two teams in the country that would be favored over Tech right now. That’s Southern California and Texas, the two teams that will be playing in the Rose Bowl national championship game.
Who said the BCS didn’t get it right?
