JUSTIN COOK The Roanoke Times

Jarrett Boykin (left) and the Virginia Tech offense square off tonight against star defensive back Eric Berry and Tennessee.

ATLANTA -- What are the chances of Virginia Tech enjoying a festive New Year's Eve tonight against Tennessee in the Chick-fil-A Bowl?

Well, there's numerous trends that say the Hokies won't be partying when the calendar flips to 2010.

Check out the numbers:

-- First, there's the Southeastern Conference thing. The Hokies are 3-9-1 under Frank Beamer vs. current SEC teams. They have lost four straight games to SEC squads since 2002.

-- The dome factor. Tech is 5-14 when playing inside, including a 2-11 mark under Frank Beamer. The Hokies are 0-2 in the Georgia Dome, losing to Alabama in this season's opener and to Georgia in the 2006 CFA bowl.

-- Tech's bowl record. The Hokies are 8-14 all time in bowls, including a mediocre 7-9 under Beamer. Tech has never won back-to-back bowl games in the Beamer era (1987-present).

Any statistics/probability course would tell you Beamer & Co. are in trouble.

However, there is one major number -- albeit far from foolproof -- backing the Hokies' odds: They were listed as a 5¹₂-point favorite Wednesday at most Las Vegas books.

Beamer knows the only figures that will amount to a hill of beans tonight around 11 o'clock are those posted on the scoreboard.

"I think this is a serious ball game, and I think our players feel the same way," Beamer said. "It's been a good trip. To make it a great trip, we need to finish up well, play well here [tonight]. Whatever they may say [the oddsmakers], we need to win it."

Senior tight end Greg Boone concurred: "I'm trying to go out on a good note and beat at least one SEC team in my career."

In a contest that matches two stout defenses and a pair of offenses that prefer to run the ball, this game very well come down to the team that makes the least amount of mistakes. That factor always comes to play in bowl games, where teams often struggle to find their timing in the long layoff following the end of the regular season.

"I think after you haven't played in a month -- and both of us finished well -- who can come out there and keep their rhythm and take care of the ball, that's the critical part," Beamer said. "We'll get our shots and we need to make some plays, but the overall thing is take care of the football."

Both teams were playing their best football at the end of November. Tech (9-3) finished with four straight wins by a combined 132-35 count. The Vols, under first-year coach Lane Kiffin, closed by winning four of their final five games, including a 30-24 overtime win at Kentucky in the finale that earned their ticket here.

A sellout crowd of some 72,000 fans should be treated to a show by two of the country's best running backs. Tech's Ryan Williams has rambled for 1,563 rushing yards this season. Tennessee senior Mario Hardesty isn't far behind at 1,306 yards.

"I'm ready ... I've felt ready for a month now," said Williams, who has scored 20 touchdowns this season, including at least one in the seven of Tech's last eight quarters of play.

Both defensive coordinators -- Tech's Bud Foster and UT's Monte Kiffin -- both say their first order of business is stopping the run. That's fine with Williams.

"If the game plan is to shut me down or whatever, Tyrod [Taylor, quarterback] and the receivers have proven that they're able to do damage in the air," Williams said. "I think we're a very dynamic offense -- we can pass and we can run. I think whatever Tennessee's defense is willing to do, if they're trying to stop one specific aspect of our offense, we'll be able to shine in the other aspect."

Kiffin, who coached the Oakland Raiders before replacing Phil Fulmer at UT last December, said Williams is "NFL ready." He's also worried about the dangerous Taylor, who has thrown for 2,102 yards with 13 TDs and only four interceptions this season.

"Taylor is very difficult to prepare for," Kiffin said. 'A lot of times you have running quarterbacks who don't throw very well. Unfortunately for us, he throws the ball very well. As we watch the film, the player we can compare him most to is [ex-Hokie QB] Michael Vick."

Taylor said a key for his offense is about controlling the ball and making big plays in the passing game.

"We have to go out there and make some in this game," said Taylor, noting that he must keep close tabs on the whereabouts of UT star defensive back Eric Berry at all times.

Hardesty, who was on Tech's recruiting radar coming out of high school in North Carolina, isn't as shifty and fast as Williams, but he's far from chopped liver.

"Just all up front ... they're a very running team," Tech linebacker Cody Grimm said. "Hardesty is obviously a big-time back. They can run and that's our plan -- we've got to stop the run in order to win this game."

Tech already has lost twice in Atlanta this season. The last thing the Hokies need is another one, cornerback Rock Carmichael said.

"We've got to get it done," Carmichael said. "The SEC guys are like on the movie '300' -- my favorite movie -- when they saw the immortals and the immortals had the all-black and the masks. Leonidas said, 'Immortals? Well, we're going to put that name to the test.' "

"That's how I feel when we play the SEC. Everybody says they're the best, but we're going to see. If they're the best, we're going to test that theory."