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Sunday, February 11, 2007

A Baker's Dozen

Dustin Long's 12 picks to make the Chase and one who won't

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1. KEVIN HARVICK

Showed his muscle last year, winning five races to lead the revival at Richard Childress Racing. Childress' teams were involved in early car of tomorrow testing and that could give Harvick the edge to win the crown.

2. KASEY KAHNE

Should be strong again on tracks 1.5 miles and larger -- all six of his victories came on such tracks a year ago. Key is how well he'll do in the car of tomorrow races. Runs well, he'll challenge for the crown.

3. TONY STEWART

The trendy favorite based on his three victories in the last 10 races of last season. Stewart and this team are good -- good enough not to miss the chase a second year in a row. One has to wonder about his attitude toward the car of tomorrow. He hates it. Problem is he'll have to drive it in 16 races.

4. JEFF GORDON

Crew chief Steve Letarte, in his first full season, gave Gordon the cars he needed to run well and it showed in the results showed. Although Gordon won only two races, he displayed his competitiveness again after missing the chase in 2005.

5. MATT KENSETH

One of the sport's most consistent drivers. Last year's strong season ended meekly, creating some concern about how he'll do this season. If the team can correct its late-season woes, Kenseth will vie for a title. If not, he'll watch others race for the trophy.

6. CARL EDWARDS

He's reunited with crew chief Bob Osborne and it was this combination that fell 35 points short of the 2005 title. Key is if car owner Jack Roush can focus on making his teams better instead of fretting so much about Toyota's entrance.

7. JIMMIE JOHNSON

No driver has won back-to-back titles since Jeff Gordon did it in 1997-98. Expect the trend to continue. The pressure of being mistake-free so long eventually breaks down a team. Should Johnson finish outside the top five it would mark his worst fulltime season in Cup.

8. KURT BUSCH

He leads Penske Racing back to the chase after a year layoff. This will be his second year with crew chief Roy McCauley and this duo should score more than the one victory it got in 2005. This team could surprise some.

9. DALE EARNHARDT JR.

His season will depend, in part, on his contract talks with Dale Earnhardt Inc. Can this team avoid the distractions the contract talks are likely to cause in the three months -- or longer -- of the season? If not, his chances of making the chase are in question.

10. JEFF BURTON

Had strong season last year, making the chase for the first time. Should make it two in a row with Childress operation on the upswing.

11. CASEY MEARS

Learned the trade the past four years with Chip Ganassi's team. Now gets in a ride at Hendrick Motorsports that can win. He'll shock some by making the chase.

12. CLINT BOWYER

Improved as the season progressed. Nearly half of his top-five finishes came in the season's final 12 races. Look for him to carry that momentum into this year.

13. DENNY HAMLIN

Hard to pick against a guy who had such a remarkable season last year, finishing third in the points. He had a charmed season. Few incidents, few mechanical issues. Steady and talented driver but sometimes that's not enough to offset karma and the guess here is the bad luck that avoided him most of last year strikes this year.

Others to watch

Greg Biffle, Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Elliott Sadler, Bobby Labonte

Last year's picks

1. Greg Biffle

2. Ryan Newman

3. Jeff Gordon

4. Tony Stewart

5. Matt Kenseth

6. Jimmie Johnson

7. Kyle Busch

8. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

9. Mark Martin

10. Denny Hamlin

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