Friday, October 09, 2009
Beware the college upset -- is Virginia Tech next?
Doug Doughty
Doug Doughty's College Notebook Plus is exclusive to roanoke.com and is posted by 5 p.m. Fridays.
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We were sitting at lunch today at Roanoke’s historic Coffee Pot when I advised local talk-show host Greg Roberts not to be surprised if Boston College gives Virginia Tech a good game Saturday.
If you caught this week’s Sports Timescast on roanoke.com, you heard my counterpart, Randy King, say that he expected the Hokies to have few problems with Boston College and have no problems covering the 13 ½-point spread.
I agreed with him at the time and still wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hokies hammer the Eagles, but last night’s Nebraska-Missouri game just reinforced what I’ve been thinking for some time. Every week, there will be a half-dozen college football outcomes that make absolutely no sense.
And, a half-dozen is probably low.
Having picked unbeaten Missouri to beat Nebraska, I watched the game on and off for three quarters. A Missouri field goal put the Tigers ahead 12-0 with 1:26 remaining in the third quarter and, while I considered for a fleeting second that Mizzou might regret not scoring a touchdown, there was no reason to believe that Nebraska would win the game.
Missouri was playing at home, always an important consideration in Thursday night games; rain was coming down in sheets and Nebraska hadn’t done anything for three quarters. The last thing I remember before I fell asleep was Nebraska throwing a 56-yard touchdown pass to make it 12-7 with 13:56 left.
It occurred to me that the Cornhuskers had put themselves in position to steal the win, so I was quick to check the ESPN “crawl” upon awakening. I’m sure there’s a good explanation, but how do you account for Nebraska scoring 27 fourth-quarter points in the rain and on the road against an unbeaten opponent?
AFTER 35 YEARS, you would think I could predict University of Virginia football, but I can’t, which is good news to UVa fans who might want to hang me over my pick of Homecoming opponent Indiana, a seven-point underdog.
There were those who picked Virginia outright to beat North Carolina, including Aaron McFarling and Fearless Forecaster guest picker Rodney Spickard, but talk all you want about UVa’s hold over the Tar Heels and Al Groh’s seeming October magic. I didn’t see it coming.
Virginia’s 16-3 upset win over North Carolina was just one of five ACC games I picked incorrectly. I had Clemson winning at Maryland (Maryland won 24-21), N.C. State winning at Wake Forest (Wake won 30-24), Florida State winning at Boston College (BC won 28-21) and Oklahoma winning at Miami (Miami won 21-20).
The Wake-State game was the closest to a pick-‘em that there was. (Gee, I’m beginning to sound Randy King). State was favored by 2-1/2 points, Florida State by four, Oklahoma by 7-1/2, Clemson by 12 ½ and North Carolina by 13.
Some of those teams I might have taken with the spread but none of them outright.
It wasn’t till Wednesday that I checked the Forecasters standings and found that a previous two-game lead had shrunk to one. I can’t come up with a strategy for picking football – I always used to favor home teams – but I guess that’s one of the beauties of college football.
JAMIE OAKES from cavs.corner com reported in his “War Room” column that David Olson, a 6-foot-3, 220-pound quarterback from Irmo High School in Columbia, S.C., will be in attendance at the Cavaliers’ game Saturday with Indiana.
Clearly, the Cavaliers are in the market for a quarterback again following a decommitment from Tyler Brosius, a 6-3, 235-pound quarterback from Waynesville, N.C., who had committed to UVa over the summer but now has given his word to N.C. State, quickly becoming a haven for Cavalier quarterback targets and should-have-been targets (Russell Wilson).
Olson is getting looks from a lot of high-profile programs, including a handful of ACC schools, but Oakes said he does not have any offers. Under normal circumstances, Virginia could make an offer to Olson and have a good chance of getting him, but there’s always the specter of Groh’s job security.
Assistants could deal with that issue by assuring prospects that UVa almost surely would pick a worthy successor if Groh does not return in 2010 but it’s still an awkward situation.
Quarterbacks, more than any other players, want to be sure of the offensive scheme that they will be entering. ONE OF THE more interesting tidbits I heard all week was from Nick Dew, a 6-foot-2, 183-pound defensive end from First Colonial School in Virginia Beach who has committed to Virginia Tech.
That’s right, defensive end. Dew has been playing defensive end for First Colonial since the third game of the season, coach Bill McTyre said. Dew previously played wide receiver and safety and is expected to be a safety or “rover” for the Hokies.
Dew’s speed is listed at 4.41 for 40 yards and the fact that he’s playing defensive end emphasizes the combination of power and athletic ability that he will bring to Tech’s secondary.
