Friday, August 08, 2008
Judging the schedules by 'winnability' factor
While we’re at it, where is Grassfield High School?
Doug Doughty
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If it appears that this column sometime appears out of thin air, this week’s edition would be a perfect illustration.
I’m not sure what I would have written if not for an 11 a.m. phone call from Tucker McLaughlin, beefy but venerable sports editor of The News & Record of South Boston.
McLaughlin is the kind of guy who forms a firm opinion of a basketball team’s NCAA Tournament chances in November, so you can be sure that he knows exactly how the Virginia Tech and Virginia football teams will finish.
When I told McLaughlin that I thought Virginia might surprise some people because its schedule isn’t the toughest, he argued that the Cavaliers might have the toughest schedule in the ACC, noting that UVa plays the Nos. 1 and 2 preseason choices in each division, as well as three non-conference opponents who played in bowls last year (Southern Cal, Connecticut and East Carolina).
On first glance, it appears he had his facts straight, but who thought we would see the day when Florida State wasn’t picked No. 1 or 2 in the Atlantic Division? (The Seminoles were a preseason choice for third behind Clemson and Wake Forest).
I don’t know how I would pick Wake ahead of Florida State, particularly when the Deacons have to go to Tallahassee, Fla., but maybe I put too much stock in the home-field advantage. After all, the Deacons thrashed the Seminoles two years ago at Doak Campbell Stadium, 30-0.
IN ANY CASE, I countered McLaughlin’s assertions about Virginia’s schedule by posing my “winnability” theory. If you look at UVa’s schedule and rank every game 1-12 in terms of winnability, I can only find two games that the Cavaliers can’t win.
Here’s the Virginia “winnability” factor, which I’ll follow with Virginia Tech’s.
1. Richmond. Can't see Al Groh letting former aide Mike London beat him, especially in the Cavaliers’ home opener, but Richmond should have won at UVa in its last meeting.
2. At Duke. I've picked UVa to lose at Wallace Wade a number of times. I've usually been wrong.
3 East Carolina at home. Payback involved here. Cavs won’t look past Pirates.
4 Maryland at home. Cavs won at Byrd last year.
5. Miami at home. The Hurricanes would have to be 49 points better.
6. North Carolina at home. Maybe it's time for the streak to end, but numbers are on UVa's side.
7. At Georgia Tech. The Cavs have won at Grant Field against better teams than this one.
8. At Wake. Check out Virginia's record at Groves over the years. It's pretty good.
9. At Connecticut. Talent level is pretty even
10. Clemson at home. The Tigers could be in a must-win situation that late in the season. They're not good in those situations.
11. At Virginia Tech. Will Groh ever win at Lane Stadium?
12. Southern California. The season really begins in Week 2.
THE SUBJECT OF Virginia Tech’s “winnability” factor was posed Friday at the SEC Roundtable, where Salem High School golf coach Thad Snyder provided a wallet-sized Hokies’ schedule. There was some meaningful dialogue until Greg Roberts, who couldn’t look more dopey with a Bluetooth attached to his ear, received a series of phone calls that put a damper on the occasion.
With less help than I could have used, here’s the Tech schedule, with the games ranked according to winnability:
Western Kentucky. I’ve pulled up the “Opponents’ Quick Facts” page in the Tech media guide and I’m still not sure whether the Hilltoppers are Division I-A. After a 7-5 season in 2007, I think they’re still on I-A probationary status till 2009.
Furman. The Paladins are definitely I-AA and they’ve won at North Carolina as recently as 2006, but they were only 6-5 last year and lost 13 starters.
Duke. In four seasons of ACC play, Tech has beaten this Coastal Division “rival” by a combined score of 165-31, including 77-17 in Blacksburg.
Maryland. In their two ACC meetings, Tech has routed the Terrapins 83-12, including 55-6 in their only conference meeting in Blacksburg.
Georgia Tech. Thad Snyder points out that the Hokies get Georgia Tech early in the season, which will give the Yellow Jackets less time to adapt to Paul Johnson’s system. Besides, Johnson was 2-10 in his first season at Navy.
Virginia. Once more, will Al Groh ever win at Lane Stadium?
At Boston College. I’ve been to Alumni Stadium only once but didn’t find it particularly intimidating. Besides, who’s the Eagles’ quarterback?
At Miami. The Hokies are good on the road and I’m not sold on Randy Shannon.
East Carolina in Charlotte, N.C.: The Pirates should have considerable support at Bank of America Stadium and gave Tech fits last year at Lane.
At North Carolina. Not sure that Tar Heels are worthy of their second-place Coastal choice, but Butch Davis has Carolina on the rebound.
At Nebraska. This might be the toughest environment Tech will enter this season and it’s certainly the longest trip.
At Florida State. Tech might be the overnight favorite if the oddsmakers were setting their lines today, but the trip to Tallahassee, Fla., comes at the end of a stretch in which they play four of five games on the road. Besides, FSU should have all of its suspended players back by that point. That said, if Florida State in Tallahassee is the Hokies' tough assignment, you can look for another banner season.
I NEED TO SEND out some props to Brian Mohr, who oversees the Virginia Tech site (HokieHaven.com) on rivals.com. Until I checked out Mohr’s rating of the top 100 seniors in Virginia, I didn’t realize that North Carolina had taken a commitment from Curtis Campbell, a 6-2, 205-pound defensive back from Grassfield High School in Chesapeake.
Heck, I didn’t even know there was a Grassfield High School.
What struck me about Mohr’s rankings and some others that have come out in the past month is how high he had another Carolina recruit, Bryn Renner, a quarterback from West Springfield High School.
I’ve been inclined to list Renner in the middle of the top 25 and maybe lower (in the 15-20 range), but Mohr had him seventh. I think what’s hurt Renner in some evaluations is the uncertainty about another West Springfield product, Peter Lalich, who has yet to seize a quarterback vacancy at Virginia that has been open for the taking.
Was Lalich, a consensus choice as the No. 2 prospect in Virginia in 2006, a “system” quarterback? If he was a system quarterback, does that mean Renner is a system quarterback because he comes out of the same system? In all fairness to Lalich, it’s too early to look at him as a bust.
As Al Groh says, name another Virginia quarterback who has had to play as early in his career as Lalich did?
IT LOOKS LIKE GROH and I were both losers in what I have renamed the “Taking Sides” segment of this column.
When asked Thursday, Groh gave the nod to Bon Jovi over Van Halen, noting that Bon Jovi had one more ring than Van Halen after this Philadelphia Soul team won last week’s Arena Bowl indoor football championship, with ex-Cavalier Connor Hughes serving as the Soul’s place-kicker.
Meanwhile, back in cyberspace, Van Halen was a landslide winner over Bon Jovi here on roanoke.com, claiming 67 percent of the more than 650 votes cast. That was similar to the margin enjoyed by Led Zeppelin over The Who.
Estimable Roanoke disc jockey, driver’s ed instructor, former boys' and women's basketball coach and local golf insider Jerry English said “Living on a Prayer” always gets a greater reaction from the ladies than “Jump” does, but maybe the ladies aren’t responding to our poll.
English, by the way, was the DJ last week at a reception following the wedding of a deaf couple. He hadn't done that before.
Luncheon-spot guru Paul O’Donnell would like to know how Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers would stack up against the Eagles (not well, I would think), but we’re still contemplating the next musical poll as Doug Wright and others continues to obsess over Iggy Pop’s missing equipment.
In the meantime, we ask for your vote on the following:
