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Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Bumpy ride to NASCAR Chase

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Dustin Long's blog

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It's up, well, mainly it's been down, but the stock market bounces all over the place with the unsteadiness of a child learning to walk.

Kind of like the NASCAR season for some teams. For every Jeff Gordon, whose stock is rising faster than Jim Cramer can shout buy, there's others who have struggled nearly as bad as AIG.

As the season enters its Easter break, more than one-fourth of the regular season has been run (seven of 26 races). For teams that have struggled, there's little time to lose if they hope to make the Chase in September.

With that in mind, here's a look at the drivers whose stock is up and those whose stock is down this season.

BUY CATEGORY

JEFF GORDON

Points rank: 1st

Points rank at this time last year: 14th

52-week high: 1st, now

52-week low: 14th after Talladega in April 2008

Why buy: Just scored his first win of the season and has not finished worse than 13th this year. Points leader after seven races has gone on to win the title three of the past six years.

TONY STEWART

Points rank: 5th

Points rank at this time last year: 5th

52-week high: 4th after California in February

52-week low: 12th after Phoenix in November

Why buy: Has formed a strong core with his team and, so far, avoided the problems that have plagued teammate Ryan Newman. Remember, Stewart typically gets stronger in summer when the tracks are slicker.

MARK MARTIN

Points rank: 18th

Points rank at this time last year: 30th

52-week high: 15th after Daytona 500

52-week low: 34th after Atlanta in March

Why buy: Has had three consecutive top-10 finishes. Had it not been for two engine failures this season, he'd be in the top 12 easily. He's rallied from mid-pack to make the Chase. That experience will help.

CARL EDWARDS

Points rank: 8th

Points rank at this time last year: 9th

52-week high: 1st after Dover in September

52-week low: 18th after Daytona 500

Why buy: On the face of things, this has been a disappointing year for a team expected to end Jimmie Johnson's reign. Pit road woes have cost him top-five finishes at least twice this year, including a possible win at Texas. Expect those issues to be resolved and Edwards to win again.

CLINT BOWYER

Points rank: 4th

Points rank at this time last year: 11th

52-week high: 2nd after Martinsville in March

52-week low: 13th after Michigan in August.

Why buy: Moved to a new team at Richard Childress Racing and has been strong this season, a 22nd at Texas notwithstanding. Few predicted he would make the Chase a third consecutive year but he's headed that way.

BE CAREFUL

KYLE BUSCH

Points rank: 7th

Points rank at this time last year: 3rd

52-week high: 1st after Richmond entering Chase

52-week low: 38th after Daytona 500.

Why careful: It's easy to list Busch as a buy after having scored two Cup wins this season. He'll likely win more. The question is what will he do in the Chase? He and his team have imploded during it in years past.

KURT BUSCH

Points rank: 3rd

Points rank at this time last year: 15th

52-week-high: 2nd after Bristol in March

52-week low: 24th after Richmond in May

Why careful: It's tempting to list him as buy with how much this team has improved. The new engine has helped. A celebrated radio exchange with car owner Roger Penske at Martinsville shows Busch's fire but others would say it shows too much of his temper.

SELL CATEGORY

DALE EARNHARDT Jr.

Points rank: 16th

Points rank at this time last year: 4th

52-week high: 2nd after Pocono in August

52-week low: 35th after California in February

Why sell: Just too many questions about this team. Could turn it around but at this point, few see him as a legitimate title contender even with Hendrick equipment should he make the Chase. Then again, maybe Earnhardt can prove doubters wrong this time.

KASEY KAHNE

Points rank: 10th

Points rank at this time last year: 12th

52-week high: 6th after Bristol in March

52-week low: 29th after Daytona 500

Why sell: Team is still using older Dodge engines. While reliable, they're not fast. He's led one lap all season. That's not going to win a title. Might not be enough to make the Chase.

MARTIN TRUEX Jr.

Points rank: 24th

Points rank at this time last year: 16th

52-week high: 10th after Daytona 500

52-week low: 28th after Martinsville in March

Why sell: Team has not shown much since winning Daytona 500 pole. Truex is in last year of his contract and there's much speculation about his future.

JAMIE McMURRAY

Points rank: 27th

Points rank at this time last year: 25th

52-week high: 16th after Homestead in November.

52-week low: 37th after Daytona 500

Why sell: His team is expected to be dumped by Roush when it has to cut back to four Cup teams after this season. Not showing much reason for people to go after him. Has fallen nine spots in points in last three races.

DAVID RAGAN

Points rank: 29th

Points rank at this time last year: 17th

52-week high: 6th after Daytona 500

52-week low: 29th now

Why sell: Team is in a freefall. Has not finished in the top 15 since Daytona 500. Entered season with a lot of promise after his improvement last season but he's too far out to make the Chase.

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