Monday, October 24, 2005
Poll shows no single issue is steering state governor's race
Education and state spending top the list of issues voters consider most important. Hear a podcast with Michael Sluss
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roanoke.com/politics
RICHMOND -- Democratic candidate Tim Kaine gets higher marks than Republican Jerry Kilgore on issues that matter most to Virginia voters in the governor's race, but the contest remains a statistical dead heat heading into the final two weeks of the campaign.
A poll commissioned by The Roanoke Times and other state newspapers finds that Kaine holds a slight advantage over Kilgore on matters related to education and state spending, which top the list of issues voters consider most important. But, when asked who they plan to support in the Nov. 8 election, voters still favor Kilgore by a narrow margin of 2 percentage points.
The results come from a telephone survey conducted last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. The firm surveyed 625 registered voters between Tuesday and Thursday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Kilgore, the former attorney general, holds a 44 percent to 42 percent lead over Kaine. Independent candidate Russ Potts has the support of 5 percent of the survey's participants, while the remaining 9 percent remain undecided.
No single issue has dominated this race, perhaps explaining why voters are sharply divided between Kilgore and Kaine when assessing the candidates' abilities to handle issues ranging from education to abortion rights. When asked which candidate would provide stronger leadership, voters are evenly split between the major-party candidates.
In the poll, education, state spending and transportation topped the list of issues that voters consider most important. Fewer than 10 percent of the voters identified the economy, crime and social issues as their chief concerns.
The poll also suggests that Kilgore's controversial ads attacking Kaine's record and position on capital punishment have done little to help the Republican. But Kilgore spokesman Tucker Martin said the voters may not have absorbed enough information about Kilgore and Kaine to reach a conclusion about the candidates.
"I think voters, in many ways, are just now tuning into the race," Martin said.
Both major-party candidates score well with voters on issues they have emphasized, with the exception of transportation. Kaine tops Kilgore when voters are asked which candidate could better handle issues related to education and managing the state budget. Kaine's most ambitious proposal calls for making pre-kindergarten education available to all Virginia 4-year-olds. And outgoing Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, has touted Kaine as the candidate most capable of managing the state's finances and ensuring that education, public safety and other essential services receive adequate funding.
"Tim Kaine is going to keep talking about the issues that he considers most important, and those are the same issues that voters care most about," said Kaine spokeswoman Delacey Skinner.
Kilgore has an edge on issues such as crime, gun rights and dealing with illegal immigrants. The Republican candidate cites his law-and-order record, his opposition to gun control, and his refusal to use public funds to help illegal immigrants as key differences between him and Kaine.
In the poll, voters make the biggest distinction between the candidates on issues related to crime, criminal justice and the death penalty. Asked which candidate would do a better job handling those issues, voters in the poll favored Kilgore over Kaine by a margin of 44 percent to 35 percent.
Martin said Kilgore's strong showing on issues such as crime and gun control indicate that Kaine has failed to convince voters that he is a moderate Democrat cast from the same mold as the popular Warner. And, Martin added, the numbers demonstrate that Kilgore has earned trust with voters on critical public safety issues.
"We feel very good about the direction of this campaign," Martin said.
But voters are evenly divided when assessing the candidates' positions on traditional wedge issues such as abortion rights and family values, according to the poll. And neither candidate has gained an advantage on issues related to transportation and roads, which may pose the toughest challenges for the next governor.
The survey suggests that Kilgore has gained little from controversial television ads attacking Kaine on the death penalty. Throughout the campaign, Kilgore has criticized the Democrat for handling the appeals of two death-row inmates and for endorsing a proposed moratorium on executions in 2001. Kaine has said he has a moral objection to the death penalty but would not use the governor's clemency power to block executions.
Earlier this month, Kilgore called further attention to the issue with television ads featuring the relatives of murder victims criticizing Kaine. In one of the ads, the father of a murder victim accuses Kaine of saying he would oppose the execution of Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler. Kaine denounced the ads. Kilgore stands by them.
Seventy-two percent of the voters surveyed said they had seen the Kilgore ads.
Only 10 percent said the ads make them more likely to vote for Kilgore, while 25 percent said they are less likely to vote for the Republican after seeing the spots.
The ads appear to have little impact on undecided voters.
Just 4 percent of undecided voters surveyed said they are more likely to support Kilgore because of the death penalty ads, and 18 percent said the ads make them less likely to vote for the Republican. But 42 percent of undecided voters had not even seen the ads when the poll was conducted last week.
