Tuesday, October 24, 2006
Poll shows Allen holds slim lead over challenger Webb
With two weeks until Election Day, Allen holds a 7-point lead in Southwest Virginia, while Webb is up 10 points in vote-rich Northern Virginia.
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roanoke.com/politics
RICHMOND -- U.S. Sen. George Allen holds a slim lead over Democratic challenger James Webb with two weeks remaining in a closely watched campaign, according to a new poll conducted for The Roanoke Times and other Virginia newspapers.
Allen leads Webb by a margin of 47 percent to 43 percent in a survey conducted last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. The poll suggests that the Republican incumbent has rebounded slightly from a series of campaign controversies that included allegations of racial insensitivity. But Allen's lead remains within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Independent candidate Gail Parker had the support of 2 percent, and the remaining 8 percent are undecided. The Virginia race has attracted national attention ahead of the Nov. 7 midterm elections that will determine partisan control of Congress.
Allen has gained 4 points since a late-September Mason-Dixon poll that had the candidates tied at 43 percent. But Allen, a former governor, has not reached the 50 percent mark in any of four Mason-Dixon polls conducted since July.
The results come from a telephone survey of 625 registered voters conducted between Oct. 17 and Thursday. All of the participants said they are likely to vote in the election.
Allen holds a 7-point lead in Roanoke and Southwest Virginia and has comfortable advantages in the Richmond metro area, the Shenandoah Valley and Lynchburg and Southside Virginia. Webb holds a 10-point advantage in vote-rich Northern Virginia and a 5-point edge in Hampton Roads, according to the poll.
Allen holds an 8-point lead with male voters and is running dead even with Webb among women. Webb holds a 7-point advantage among self-described independent voters.
Allen began the campaign being touted as a possible 2008 presidential candidate and held a 16-point lead over Webb in a Mason-Dixon poll conducted in July.
But his lead dwindled after a much-publicized August incident in which he used the word "macaca" to identify a Webb volunteer of Indian descent. Allen apologized, but the episode generated national media scrutiny of Allen's attitudes on race and ethnicity.
Allen in September adamantly denied allegations in an online magazine story that he had frequently used an inflammatory racial epithet as a student and football player at the University of Virginia. The story was based on a former teammate's accusations. But other former teammates came to the senator's defense and said they never witnessed racist behavior by Allen.
Only 30 percent of the poll's participants said they believe the allegations against Allen and only 15 percent said the accusations would be important to their voting decisions. But Allen's unfavorable rating has increased since late September, jumping 7 points to 39 percent.
Allen could be hampered by voter unease about the Republican Party in general and President Bush in particular, said Brad Coker, the managing director of the Mason-Dixon poll.
Despite the fact that both of Virginia's U.S. senators are Republicans, 45 percent said they prefer to see Democrats in charge of the Senate and just 43 percent said they want the GOP to stay in charge. Democrats would have to pick up six seats to gain a majority in the 100-member Senate.
President Bush's approval rating remains at 42 percent in the poll, unchanged from two September surveys by Mason-Dixon. While Bush gets majority support for his handling of the economy and the war on terrorism, just 43 percent approve of his handling of the situation in Iraq.
Allen, long a staunch supporter of Bush's Iraq policy, has toned down his rhetoric on the war in recent weeks. Allen has aligned himself with fellow Republican John Warner, Virginia's senior senator, who has been critical of the Iraqi government's progress in containing sectarian violence and providing public services. Allen said last week the U.S. "can't continue to keep doing the same things and expect different results."
