Sunday, October 23, 2005
Poll indicates the race for governor is a tossup
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RICHMOND -- Republican Jerry Kilgore and Democrat Tim Kaine are locked in a neck and neck race for the governor's mansion with a little more than two weeks remaining until Election Day, according to a poll commissioned by The Roanoke Times and other state newspapers.
Kilgore leads Kaine by just 2 percentage points in a survey conducted last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. The poll indicates that independent candidate Russ Potts has not made a strong impression on voters, but could be a spoiler in a close race between the major-party contenders.
Kilgore, the former attorney general, has the support of 44 percent of the registered voters who participated in the survey. That represents an improvement of 3 points from a Mason-Dixon poll conducted last month, which had Kilgore leading Kaine by a single percentage point.
Kaine, the lieutenant governor, registered 42 percent in last week's poll, a 2-point improvement from the September survey. Despite clear differences between the two candidates on most major issues, 9 percent of the voters remain undecided, according to the poll.
The results come from a telephone survey of 625 registered voters conducted Tuesday through Thursday. All of the participants indicated they are likely to vote in the Nov. 8 election. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The results suggest that an Oct. 9 televised debate and heavy doses of television and radio advertising --much of it negative -- have done little to shake up a close contest.
"The only thing I take from this poll and the two previous ones is that the race is as tight as a tick," said Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "It can go either way."
But representatives of both major-party candidates found something to crow about when discussing the survey.
"Obviously, we feel very good about where we are and we're going to continue to run hard," said Kilgore spokesman Tucker Martin.
Martin said Republican candidates have a history of "closing fast" at the end of Virginia election cycles and predicted Kilgore will continue that tradition.
Kaine spokeswoman Delacey Skinner said the poll's narrow margin suggests that Kilgore gained nothing from television ads that attacked Kaine's position on the death penalty. Kaine has said he would not block executions as governor despite his moral objection to capital punishment.
The controversial ads feature relatives of murder victims, including a man who criticized Kaine for providing legal assistance in the death row appeal of his son's killer. In one version of the ad, the man accused Kaine of saying he would oppose the execution of Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler. Kaine denounced the ad. Kilgore stands by it.
"The death penalty attack ads have fallen on their face," Skinner said.
Martin said Kilgore has not finished picking apart Kaine's record.
"We've only scratched the surface on Tim Kaine's liberal record," Martin said.
But Skinner said Kaine's poll numbers have improved as voters learn more about him.
"When you look at overall trends and you look at where we were a year ago -- down as much as 10 points -- we've brought this race to a statistical dead heat," Skinner said.
The survey shows Kilgore running well ahead of Kaine throughout Western Virginia and slightly ahead in the Lynchburg area and in Southside Virginia. Kaine holds a solid lead over Kilgore in vote-rich Northern Virginia and a slight advantage in Hampton Roads. Kilgore and Kaine are dead even in the Richmond area, where Kaine once served as mayor and where both candidates now live.
Martin said Kilgore's solid lead in Western Virginia is "proof positive" that Kaine has not been able to persuade voters that he is the logical successor to Democratic Gov. Mark Warner, who ran well in rural areas in 2001. But Kaine holds a 6-point lead over Kilgore among voters who described themselves as independent. Those swing voters were critical to Warner's election four years ago.
Potts' campaign appears to be flagging. The outspoken state senator fell to 5 percent in last week's survey, a 1-point drop from September and a 4-point decline from a July poll by Mason-Dixon. Potts' name recognition has increased dramatically, but it apparently hasn't helped him win over voters.





