Sunday, November 01, 2009
Poll: McDonnell extending lead
The Republican appears to be winning over previously undecided voters.
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roanoke.com/politics
With Virginia's Election Day less than 48 hours away, large numbers of previously undecided voters now say they're supporting Republican candidate for governor Bob McDonnell, giving him 12 percentage point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds, according to a new poll.
McDonnell, who has been consistently been ahead of Deeds in several voter surveys, was supported by 53 percent of likely voters polled on Wednesday and Thursday compared with 41 percent who favor Deeds, according Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. Six percent were undecided.
The telephone survey of 625 registered voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Support for Deeds was relatively unchanged from a similar Mason-Dixon poll taken Oct. 6-9, but McDonnell's support has risen and the number of voters who remain undecided shrank by half.
President Obama's rousing speech at a rally for Deeds in Norfolk on Tuesday, which the campaign hoped would energize voters, didn't seem to have an effect, said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon.
"McDonnell's lead ... does not appear to have been dented in any way by Obama's appearance," Coker wrote in his analysis.
Instead, McDonnell, a former state legislator from Virginia Beach, made his strongest gains in recent weeks among likely Hampton Roads voters, according to the poll. He also appears to be leading Deeds in most regions of the state with the exception of Northern Virginia, where Deeds had a slight edge.
Deeds, a state senator from Bath County, has counted on strong support in the Washington suburbs and Hampton Roads as well as his native Western Virginia. The two populous regions were key to Obama's carrying Virginia last year and the election of Gov. Tim Kaine in 2005.
While both gubernatorial candidates predictably had overwhelming support from voters from their respective political parties, McDonnell also made gains among independent voters, according to the poll.
Swaying the independents can be critical, Coker said. Democrats Mark Warner in 2001 and Kaine in 2005 won the governorship with their support.
Coker also noted that Deeds' campaign was having trouble attracting enough women and black voters -- two groups key to a statewide Democratic win.
Men tended to support McDonnell by an almost 2-to-1 margin while women were split between the two candidates, the poll found.
Deeds "has no margin with women," Coker said.
As for black voters, less than one in 10 polled said they would support McDonnell; however, an almost equal number was still undecided -- as they were three weeks ago.
"What you see is a lack of excitement there," Coker said. "This tells me they're not going to turn out,"
Four years ago, when Deeds and McDonnell went head to head in the state attorney general's race, Deeds was behind in late polls. The election was still very close, with McDonnell winning by 360 votes out of 1.94 million cast.
But four years ago, the polls were much tighter. In the days before that election, Mason-Dixon reported that McDonnell was supported by 43 percent of those polled, Deeds by 40 percent and 17 percent were undecided.





