Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Poll finds many likely voters undecided
About 22 percent of people surveyed aren't sure how they will vote for governor on Nov. 3.
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roanoke.com/politics
A new poll shows Republican Bob McDonnell continues to have a strong lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds but also indicates a large bloc of undecided voters, including many women, blacks and Democrats, have yet to make up their minds as the Nov. 3 election draws nearer.
McDonnell, a former attorney general, was ahead by a double-digit margin of 45 percent to Deeds' 31 percent. However, one in five -- 22 percent -- said they're undecided.
The statewide survey, conducted by the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, also found that McDonnell's 1989 graduate school thesis, which criticized working mothers and gays, did not affect most people's view of him.
In the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general, almost half of those contacted said last week that they weren't sure whom they will support in the two races.
Incumbent Lt. Gov. Bolling, a Republican, was favored by just more than 29 percent of those polled compared with the 25 percent who wanted Democratic challenger Judy Wagner. About 45 percent were undecided.
Meanwhile, Ken Cuccinelli, the Republican candidate for attorney general, was supported by almost 31 percent of likely voters and Steven Shannon, the Democratic candidate by 26 percent. Almost 43 percent remained undecided.
The survey, which involved telephone interviews with 506 likely voters Oct. 8-13, has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
A recent Washington Post poll of those two races found the Republicans led their Democratic rivals 49 percent to 40 percent.
Quentin Kidd, the center's director, said that in the CNU poll, pollsters deliberately did not push those who were undecided to make a choice but sought, instead, to understand who they were.
The pool of likely but uncommitted voters includes a significant number of Democrats and independents, while Republicans were more solidly backing McDonnell, Kidd said.
"Deeds is behind because he hasn't sold himself to his own party and he hasn't sold himself to independents." Kidd said.
The same is true for likely voters who identified themselves as women or black. Among both groups, roughly one of every four voters surveyed said they aren't sure which candidate they'll support.
The survey also indicates that McDonnell is doing well in Northern Virginia, an area that in recent elections has voted for Democrats in statewide contests. He and Deeds appear to be close in the region, with about one in five voters still undecided.
By comparison, McDonnell appears to be well ahead of Deeds in Hampton Roads.
