Sunday, November 02, 2008
Mason-Dixon poll says presidential race still tight in Virginia
As in the Doug Wilder race, a large number of voters remain undecided, pollsters say.
Sam Dean | The Roanoke Times
Elisha Jones shields her eyes from Saturday's sun while attending a Get Out The Vote rally by the Northwest City Democratic Caucus.
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From The Roanoke Times
RICHMOND -- The presidential race in Virginia remains tight, and undecided voters hold the key to the outcome, according to a new statewide poll conducted for The Roanoke Times.
Democrat Barack Obama holds a slim lead over Republican John McCain as both candidates make a final push to win Virginia's 13 electoral votes. Obama is making an all-out effort to become the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Virginia since 1964, but the latest poll suggests he has not closed the deal.
Obama leads McCain by 3 percentage points -- 47 percent to 44 percent -- in the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. But 9 percent of the voters remain undecided in the closing days of the race, a much larger percentage than in final pre-election polls Mason-Dixon has conducted in recent presidential elections. Obama does have a 50 percent to 39 percent advantage among independent voters, according to the poll.
The results come from a telephone survey of 625 registered voters conducted Wednesday and Thursday. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
Brad Coker, the managing director of the Mason-Dixon poll, noted that the percentage of undecided voters is similar to the 8 percent undecided figure in the final pre-election survey conducted for Virginia's 1989 governor's race. Democrat Doug Wilder narrowly won that election, becoming the nation's first elected black governor.
The new poll differs little from a Mason-Dixon survey conducted in mid-October that had Obama ahead by 2 points. But several polls by other firms have Obama ahead by larger margins, fueling optimism among Democrats that their candidate can grab a traditionally red state.
Obama has made 10 visits to Virginia since the end of the primary season, including a visit to Roanoke on Oct. 17. The Democratic senator from Illinois will finish his campaign with a Monday night rally in Manassas. He has flooded the state with staff and volunteers and has spent heavily on television advertising.
"They have really given us a lot of attention, which is great," said Gov. Tim Kaine, a national co-chairman of Obama's campaign.
Kaine said Thursday that Obama has made an effective case to Virginians who are worried about the economy and the country's global reputation. But because of Virginia's history of backing Republican presidential candidates, Kaine said, Obama should be considered an underdog.
McCain, who considers Virginia a must-win state, made stops Saturday in Newport News and Fairfax County. His running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin appeared in Henrico County on Saturday, after making three Virginia stops on Monday, including one in Salem. McCain will hold an airport rally near Bristol, Tenn., on Monday morning, an event aimed at attracting Southwest Virginia supporters.
McCain has a 17-point advantage in Southwest Virginia and solid leads in the Shenandoah Valley, Central Virginia and Southside Virginia.
Obama leads McCain by a ratio of nearly 2 to 1 in vote-rich Northern Virginia, a region where Democrats have gained strength in recent years. He also has a 10-point advantage in Hampton Roads, a region with a heavy military presence and one that both campaigns consider critical.
McCain's campaign has zeroed in on defense and national security issues in the past week, attempting to tie Obama to recent comments by U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass. Frank told a Massachusetts newspaper that congressional Democrats could seek to cut defense spending by 25 percent, an amount that McCain's Virginia supporters said could be devastating to the state's economy.
"We're going to be talking a lot about that these last few days," said Attorney General Bob McDonnell, a McCain supporter, during a Friday conference call.
Retiring U.S. Sen. John Warner, an early McCain supporter, raised the issue repeatedly last week. He also spoke out in a McCain radio ad, saying defense cuts "will weaken Virginia's economy, weaken national defense."
Obama's campaign swiftly responded with a television ad declaring that Obama would increase defense spending, add 65,000 troops to the Army and recruit 27,000 Marines.
