Sunday, November 02, 2008
From the Newsroom: Key locales could signal if state is red or blue
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roanoke.com/politics
From the Newsroom column
Dwayne Yancey, Senior editor for new channels
From the Newsroom blog
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So, you're one of those people who is jonesing to find out who's won the election, and you don't want to wait up until the wee hours to find out like everybody else.
I'll let you in on a little secret.
Actually, five little secrets.
And, OK, they're really not that secret, after all, at least not to those who follow Virginia elections.
Here are five places in Virginia to watch Tuesday night to get a good sense of how the Old Dominion is swinging, and with it, perhaps the nation.
- The Northern Virginia exurbs. "Exurbs" is a fancy demographers' word for the outer suburbs. In this case, Loudoun County and Prince William County. (The inner suburbs -- Arlington and Alexandria -- are overwhelmingly Democratic.)
It's in Loudoun and Prince William that Virginia will be won or lost. Demographic changes have flipped the two formerly reliably Republican counties. Democrat Tim Kaine surprised everyone by carrying both in his 2005 race for governor, and Democrat Jim Webb managed the same trick in his 2006 upset over George Allen for the U.S. Senate.
Tell me how those counties vote and I'll wager I can tell you who won. The only problem is, the Northern Virginia localities are usually among the last to report their returns, and the point here is to figure things out earlier.
So let's move on.
- Roanoke. Barack Obama will carry Roanoke. That's not media bias, that's just political reality. The question is, what will his margin be? Will he squeak by like John Kerry did, or will he run up a big margin like Kaine and Webb did in their races?
The deciding places will be Williamson Road -- older, less affluent -- and Raleigh Court -- younger, more affluent. Those are the Star City's swing precincts.
In 2004, President Bush took three of the five Raleigh Court precincts. By contrast, Kaine swept Raleigh Court. So did Webb. If Obama wins Raleigh Court, he'll likely carry Virginia. If John McCain takes all or most of the precincts there, then bet on the state staying red.
Ditto Williamson Road. Different demographics, but same results, more or less. Bush took four of the six Williamson Road precincts. Kaine swept. Webb only won two precincts, but lost the others by narrow margins.
So maybe you could just look at those results and then turn in. But if want to keep looking, well, here goes:
- Virginia Beach. The seaside city is another good barometer. Republicans need to win here by a good margin to win statewide. Bush did. Allen won, but not by much, which was one early indication he was in trouble. Kaine took the beach outright. Obama needs to win here or come very close; McCain needs to win with a healthy margin.
- Henrico County. This suburb of Richmond performs much like Virginia Beach. This is also a good example of how not all suburbs are created equal. Richmond's southern suburb, Chesterfield County, will go Republican no matter what.
- Virginia's Rust Belt. We're not Ohio but we have a number of counties that resemble parts of the Rust Belt. The coalfields. Alleghany County and Covington. Or, my personal favorite for election night, Henry County.
Like the other swing localities listed here, Henry County has voted Republican in recent presidential elections, but went Democratic for Kaine in the governor's race. It's not a perfect bellwether, because it did go with Allen over Webb.
Still, there's a reason why we've seen both Obama and Joe Biden in Martinsville (and Todd Palin, too.) If Henry County goes Democratic, we can probably count on Obama carrying Virginia. If it goes Republican, then, well, we'll want to wait and see how Loudoun and Prince William go before we call anything.
So, are we having fun yet? Join me Tuesday night on roanoke.com. As the returns come in, I'll be posting analyses and we'll see how accurate these bellwethers are this year.
