The state that long ago was so violently gray, home of the capital of the Confederacy, and Republican red in presidential elections for the past 40 years, may now be heading toward the Democratic blue, led by Barack Obama.

"The real shock in Virginia is the 2-to-1 turnout in favor of the Democrats," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "That's embarrassing for Republicans. They can't take Virginia for granted any more."

Of course the nominations aren't locked up yet, with critical Democratic primaries looming in Texas, Ohio and Wisconsin. But in the wake of sweeping victories by Obama over Hillary Clinton and Republican front-runner John McCain over Mike Huckabee, political analysts are now training their sights beyond the summer conventions to zero in on the general election in November.

Virginia's results raise the prospect that a state which only a year ago saw legislators approve a resolution to apologize for slavery has become a tipping point for the first black major-party presidential nominee in U.S. history.

Obama's win prompts some pundits to wonder if he can carry a constituency that successful Democratic standard-bearers from the South such as Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have failed to win: Virginia, with its 13 electoral votes out of 270 needed to gain the White House.

Although Obama was ahead in the polls going into Tuesday, the margin of his victory, winning 64 percent of the vote, surprised some experts and sets a tone that could be hard to reverse, coming at a critical point in the primaries.

"The real importance of Virginia is its meaning to the psychology of the race. It wasn't even close, and Obama has now won nine states in a row," said Ed Lynch, an associate professor of political science at Hollins University.

And given Obama's larger-than-expected margin of victory in Virginia's primary, could this state's profile in the fall election rise even further if Gov. Tim Kaine emerges as a running mate? Kaine is the national co-chairman of Obama's campaign.

"Kaine would make an excellent vice presidential candidate except for one thing: That would mean he's succeeded by a Republican as governor," said Paul Goldman, former campaign manager for Douglas Wilder, who was Virginia's first black governor, serving from 1990 to 1994.

Wilder was also a trailblazer of sorts for Obama, as he ran a brief campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1992.

In Virginia, if a governor dies or resigns, he's succeeded by the lieutenant governor, who is elected separately. The office is currently held by Bill Bolling, a Republican.

"Although having a Southern governor like Kaine would be good for the Democratic ticket nationally, I think it could hurt them in Virginia if Kaine turns his state over to a Republican. That's never been done before," said Goldman.

Kaine has said repeatedly that he intends to serve out the remainder of his gubernatorial term, which expires in 2010. He has also said the best way he can help Obama is to campaign for him.

Obama's results in Virginia could mean that McCain will have to fight harder for this state in the general election than almost any Republican since Barry Goldwater. Not only did the Democratic turnout double the Republican total, but even Hillary Clinton outscored McCain by more than 100,000 votes.

"Virginia is more evidence that Republicans are showing 'buyer's remorse' about McCain as the presumptive nominee," said UVa's Sabato. "If it's McCain in the fall for the GOP, that means at a minimum that he'll have to spend a lot of time and resources in Virginia that he would rather spend elsewhere."

The strong youth turnout among Virginia Democrats punctuates a national trend in which the impact of under-30 voters is being heavily felt, according to figures compiled by the nonpartisan Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement. The youth vote in Virginia accounted for 13 percent of all balloting, rivaling or exceeding the under-30 turnout in many key states on Super Tuesday earlier this month. Indeed, Virginia's youth share of the total equaled that demographic's 13 percent showings in Obama's home state of Illinois and New York, Clinton's base.

The significance of Virginia's youth turnout for Obama is that he won an even heavier majority than his overall margin: 76 percent.

"He's strong among young Democratic voters, who are turning out in heavier numbers this year," said Emily Kirby, a researcher at the College Park, Md.-based CIRCLE. And as the Democratic primary battle moves from Virginia into Texas and Ohio, Obama's wins on Tuesday could be influential with young voters, she said. "He's winning, and that's getting attention," she said.

Goldman, reflecting on Tuesday's results, said he "would be a lot less surprised" if Obama becomes the first black president than when Wilder became the first black Virginia governor. "Wilder was a surprise in 1990. Obama isn't a surprise anymore. He's winning state after state."

His prediction: The Virginia winners in both parties will face each other in November. "I'm predicting Obama versus McCain."

If that's the contest, he said, Virginia will become an essential battlefield, a proving ground for the strength of strategically vital constituencies. McCain will need the traditionally Republican military vote and the high-income Northern Virginia area. Yet Obama has shown drawing power among high-income voters, white and black.

Thus Goldman said the general election, in Virginia and nationally, will turn on ''how they can best hold on to their constituencies, and expand them."

Staff writer Michael Sluss contributed to this report.