Sunday, February 10, 2008
Poll: Obama commands lead in Virginia; McCain ahead in most regions
A survey says 53 percent of voters surveyed said they would choose the Illinois senator, and 37 percent opted for Hillary Clinton.
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Barack Obama spoke in Richmond Saturday at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner. Hillary Clinton, his rival for the Democratic nomination, also spoke at the event.
Poll results
Related stories
- Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama woo Virginians in Richmond
- Huckabee, Obama to visit Southwest Va.
- Bill Clinton campaigns in Blacksburg
Who's coming to town?
- Today: Hillary Clinton will hold a town hall-style meeting at Patrick Henry High School in Roanoke. Doors open at 4 p.m. Meeting starts at 5 p.m. Seating is on a first-come, first-serve basis
- Monday: Barack Obama speaks at the Jefferson Center in Roanoke at 7:30 a.m. Tickets are available at his campaign office on 110 Kirk Ave. in downtown Roanoke starting at noon Sunday. Limit two tickets per person
- Monday: Mike Huckabee will speak in Roanoke at 7:15 p.m. A final location has not been determined yet. Keep checking for details
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Politics
As Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama parachuted into Virginia on whirlwind campaigns leading up to Tuesday's primary election, a poll released today showed Obama with a commanding lead.
Of 400 likely voters in the Democratic primary who were surveyed, 53 percent said they would vote for Obama and 37 percent favored Clinton. On the Republican side, John McCain appeared to be solidifying his role as nominee-to-be with a 28-percentage point lead over Mike Huckabee.
The statewide poll, commissioned by The Roanoke Times and other Virginia newspapers, was conducted Thursday and Friday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
Southwest Virginia is the only part of the state where Clinton leads. Forty-seven percent of the voters surveyed in the region supported Clinton, compared with 43 percent for Obama, the poll found.
The Clinton campaign was the first to touch ground in Southwest Virginia, with former President Bill Clinton visiting Blacksburg on Saturday night and Hillary Clinton scheduled to appear in Roanoke at 5 p.m. today.
"She can battle down there," Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker said of Clinton's chances in Southwest Virginia. The area has fewer blacks and more white, working-class voters, Coker said, "rather than Chablis-sipping, brie-eating liberal types."
But even if Clinton does well in the area, "it won't be enough" to offset Obama's support in the rest of the state, he predicted.
It was Obama's 82 percent support among black voters that bolstered his statewide standing, the poll found. And while Clinton took 49 percent of the white vote in the poll, Obama was not far behind with 41 percent.
Of the female voters surveyed, 49 percent favored Obama, compared with 41 percent for Clinton.
For those voting on the issues, Obama had a clear edge among those who listed the war in Iraq as their most important issue, while Clinton found more support from voters interested in the economy and health care, the poll found.
Democrats surveyed listed the economy, health care, the war in Iraq and national security as their top four issues, in that order. The priority among Republicans was national security, the economy, moral and family issues, and immigration.
The poll showed McCain running well ahead in every part of the state except Southwest Virginia, where the Arizona senator was dead even with Huckabee. And while Huckabee had an 11-percentage point lead among "very conservative" Republicans, self-described evangelical Christians were slightly more likely to back McCain.
Of the 400 likely Republican voters surveyed, 40 percent said "strength and leadership to keep America safe" was the quality they most wanted in a candidate, while another 37 percent wanted someone who shared their personal values.
McCain was favored by voters looking for leadership; Huckabee did better with those voting on moral issues.
Among Democrats, 47 percent said they most wanted a candidate who represents change or cares about the issues they care about. Another 42 percent listed honesty or experience as the most important trait.
Obama led Clinton more than 3-to-1 among Democrats seeking a change, while she held an even wider lead over the Illinois senator among voters looking for experience.
The poll, which was conducted by random telephone interviews Thursday and Friday, has a 5 percent margin of error. In other words, there is a 95 percent probability that the results would be the same if all voters were surveyed.
