Sunday, November 11, 2007
Democrats see a possible blue Virginia
Party leaders hope last week's elections will elevate Virginia to a battlefield state in 2008.
RICHMOND -- By taking control of the state Senate in Tuesday's General Assembly elections, Virginia Democrats continued a long rebuilding process that has seen them win consecutive elections for governor in 2001 and 2005 and unseat an incumbent U.S. senator in 2006.
Now, some party leaders insist those results should get the attention of national Democrats and elevate Virginia to a battleground state in next year's presidential election, even though no Democratic presidential nominee has carried the state since 1964.
But state Democrats also caution that a national candidate must appeal to middle-of-the-road voters to break that trend.
"I think that you can make a strong case that kind of moderate, centrist, get-things-done candidates fared pretty well," said Gov. Tim Kaine on Wednesday, one day after Democrats picked up four Senate seats to gain a 21-19 majority.
Republicans won 54 of 100 seats in the House of Delegates, but Democrats picked up four seats to reduce the GOP's majority.
"Virginians are slowly warming up to Democrats," said state Sen. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath County.
The gains made by Virginia Democrats are not lost on party officials at the national level, Democratic National Committee spokesman Damien LaVera said.
"This is a state that is trending toward Democrats," LaVera said. "It really does show that Virginia will be in play" in 2008.
The Virginia legislative elections added "icing on the cake" for national Democrats who already were eyeing the Old Dominion, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
"They were already excited about Virginia because of the election in 2005 and especially [U.S. Sen.] Jim Webb's in 2006," Sabato said.
A major statewide race also will draw national attention to Virginia in 2008, as voters choose a successor to retiring U.S. Sen. John Warner, a Republican who has served five terms. Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat who is unrelated to the senator, already has announced his candidacy. Former Gov. Jim Gilmore has expressed interest in the Republican nomination and may announce his candidacy soon.
Warner's 2001 election as governor marked a pivot point for Virginia Democrats. The former governor, who strongly considered a presidential bid, has criticized national Democrats in the past for ignoring the South in presidential campaigns and concentrating on a limited number of states that can deliver the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
But Gilmore questioned whether Virginia voters will buy what national Democrats are selling after more than four decades of backing Republican presidential candidates.
"They're not going to think that a continuing pattern of wanting more spending and taxing and a growth of government at the national level is the right answer," Gilmore said Friday.
Republican leaders acknowledge that Tuesday's legislative elections underscore some weaknesses for the party, particularly in the fast-growing suburbs of Northern Virginia.
"Where we had a strong, consistent message, we did well," said former Lt. Gov. John Hager, the chairman of the state Republican Party. "Where the message got diluted and we tried to be Democrat-light, we didn't do well."
Gilmore said Tuesday's legislative elections "don't point yet to a particular direction" for 2008.
"As long as Republicans address issues of regular Virginians, stand by their principles and don't shift their positions once they're in office, they're all right," said Gilmore, who was elected governor in 1997 by vowing to eliminate the personal property tax on automobiles.
GOP leaders also questioned whether any of the Democrats' top-tier presidential candidates, particularly Sen. Hillary Clinton, could have broad appeal in the state.
"The current candidates for the presidential nomination are far more liberal than Virginia," Hager said.
Top contenders in both parties have made campaign visits to Virginia, even though the state will have little impact on choosing the Democratic and Republicans nominees. More than half of the states will hold primaries and caucuses before Virginia's Feb. 12 primary, beginning with the Jan. 3 Iowa precinct caucuses.
It's too soon to tell how seriously Democrats will compete for Virginia's 13 electoral votes next year. In 2004, John Kerry and running mate John Edwards made a handful of appearances in the state. But the campaign moved its top Virginia staffers to more competitive states in early October, and President Bush ultimately won the state by 8 percentage points.
Kaine's election in 2005 and Webb's upset of incumbent Sen. George Allen last year seemed to defy the conventional wisdom that Virginia is a solid red state.
But the party's recent gains don't automatically make the state more competitive for a presidential contender, Deeds said.
"Virginia is still a right-of-center state," said Deeds, who lost the 2005 race for attorney general by a mere 360 votes. "It's still going to be tough to win here."
Sabato said a Democrat with centrist or regional appeal could put Virginia on the electoral battlefield next year. But, he said, "if it's Hillary Clinton, I don't think a major investment will be made."
Kaine, who has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois in the presidential race, said Tuesday's election results suggest that candidates will succeed in Virginia by winning the race for the political center.
"The outcome speaks for pragmatism and moderation -- of either party," Kaine said.





