Aug. 12, 2002 -- Waaaaay north. Closer to a billion and a half. That's the size of the coming budget deficit, sobering news Gov. Warner will deliver to the General Assembly's money committees on the 19th. The administration began floating that balloon a week ago, in some preemptive effort to readjust expectations and thereby soften the blow. Still, it is going to be a heavy one. This time around it's going to hurt, coming on the heels of budget disaster during the last session. How Warner deals with it will define his legacy -- and his prospects for political life after the Governor's Mansion.
This is not what he wanted, not what he envisioned coming in. The Warner administration would be the one that reinvented government in Virginia, the one that brought diverse opinions and cultures together and massaged philosophical differences into process oriented, merit-based solutions. This administration would be the one that took the partisanship out of politics. Therein lies part of the dilemma he faces now. You don't solve a problem the size of this budget deficit without understanding -- and making Virginians understand -- its origin.
You don't solve this one without understanding -- and making Virginian's understand -- that the seeds of this calamity were sewn by George Allen and took root, and flourished, under Jim Gilmore. But to point that out is to be construed as 'partisan', a little hard to do when you came in playing footsie with them.
Sure, the economic landscape has changed. But it always does. That's a constant. It is always fluid. The World Trade Center attack, the accounting scandals, intense hostility between Israel and the Palestinians, talk of war with Iraq -- they all negatively affect spending habits here and abroad, and spending is what drives a capitalistic economy. Wall Street is merely the meter, the jitteriness index, that measures that unease. And sure, Virginia still labors under an antiquated tax system. But the plain fact is that under Allen and Gilmore lots of folks, smart folks, suspended disbelief and bought into the notion that there is, in fact, a free lunch.
You've got to understand that, you've got to talk about that, to give Virginians a grounded understanding of where we are now. Is that 'partisan'? Well pardon me. Remember 'privatization'? VDOT is in a shambles now because George Allen sent the agency braintrust home under early retirement The state retired people at $15 and hour, hired them back as $45 an hour consultants and called that saving money. Remember 'No Parole'? The good people of Virginia are still paying for that one. That campaign theme resulted in an overbuild of prisons to the extent that we had to import convicts from out of state to help cover the overhead. And guess what? Crime is up. And now we're talking about mothballing two or three of the prisons we shouldn't have built to begin with.
And then there is the car tax. Gilmore rode the issue to Richmond. And folks suspended disbelief and bought into the idea that you can have the services that you demand as citizens without paying for them, that lunch is, in fact, free. The amount that lamebrain idea is costing the state treasury would just about cover the shortfall Warner is faced with now. So, why the reluctance to talk about that now?
The round of coming inevitable cuts will get into bone and muscle. The fat is largely gone. What are we going to see? Some state services will be eliminated. Responsibility for others will be pushed back to local governments, already stressed by the same issues stressing the state. You will see every one of them cut services, raise taxes, or do both. The phrase 'unfunded mandate' will pass from the lips of every supervisor, every town and city council member, every school board member in Virginia. State employees will be denied the pay they deserve. Another raid on the so-called 'rainy day' fund will be made, ironic, coming as it will, in the midst of a prolonged drought. Sadly, the drought we're suffering is not just of the weather-related variety. In all probability the taxpayers of Virginia will be burdened with additional debt. And the state will raise taxes. That balloon has been floated too. Tobacco and alcohol will be the initial carriers. There will be others. And, finally, we're going to find new 'efficiencies'. Watch for those to come from the Wilder commission's recommendations.
Who will suffer the most, disproportionately? The poor, the afflicted, the already-burdened -- in other words, those with the least clout, the least voice.
Here's the politics of it: Warner will have to submit a balanced budget to the General Assembly in January and in so doing will position himself -- because he has not made a partisan case to the contrary -- to take the blame for it. The cuts in services will be Warner cuts. The tax increases will be Warner raising your taxes. The Republican majorities in the House and Senate, though they're responsible for the mess we're in, will make that case against him ten thousand times. Why is that? They understand politics. And they're going to give the Governor some understanding of it. His facility for learning will determine his political viability after the governorship.
Watch what happens. Remember where you read it.
Copyright 2002