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Barnie Day was a Democratic delegate from Patrick County from his election in 1997 through the 2001 session. A former county administrator and business owner, he is now a banker.
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Gov. Mark Warner's clear signaling last week that he will push restructuring of the state's antiquated tax code -- details to follow in November -- as a springboard to a revamp of state education spending was met with, well, skepticism, particularly among some in the Northern Virginia business community and some of the noted academics who follow such stuff.
Some of it seemed a little patronizing. "He's a good guy. Been dealt a bad hand. Time has run out. Etc. Etc. Etc." is the gist of how it went.
Offered herewith, a contrarian view: Warner will prevail. Or, more correctly put, the Republican majority in the Virginia House and Senate, heretofore loath to let the good guv chalk up anything even approaching '"legacy" status --were there such a thing in the plan box to begin with -- will, in the end, give him a pass on the tax code re-write.
Crazy? I don't think so.
Forget his persuasive, documented ability to bring diverse interests to some middle ground. Forget his focus. That's right: he does have it in spades from time to time. In fact, just forget his strengths altogether. This one won't be so much about him.
Other pieces to this puzzle are finding their rightful place.
Sure, time is short. When the bell rings sometime shortly after Nov. 4, Warner basically has a year. But that's time enough. More importantly, Republican centrist wins in the primaries. Chichester, Norment and Potts shored up his Senate flank. He has no flank in the House, but recent disclosures by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission that the state is half a billion dollars short in meeting its basic education funding will play almost as well -- particularly in the hands of Virginia's Patron Saint of Public Education, Jim Dillard, R-Fairfax.
But you can discount those, too. This won't be so much about these peripheral events, either.
Warner will get tax reform and, by inference, some of what he wants on education spending, because Republicans will want to take both issues off the table for ... (drumroll, please) ... Attorney General Jerry Kilgore!
Here are the calculations: everybody knows that "tax reform" cannot, will not, be "revenue neutral." Everybody knows that it has to, and will, in fact, happen. So, the question then becomes, from the Republican perspective, 'How do we get something we know we have to have, and desperately want the benefit of, but want no part of politically?'
That's an easy one. You let Warner do it. You let him have the "legacy" of a tax increase.
Will they? I think they will -- for Kilgore's sake.
Call it the "tar-baby" strategy.
The Republican majority in the House and Senate, protesting mightily, beseechingly, will barely let Warner, if he tries hard and convincingly -- and, of course, he will -- fling them into the briar patch of tax "reform" (translation: "increase").
Why would they do that? That's an easy one, and not a little too obvious.
Not only will they get the political benefit of increased funds for education, transportation, and so on, while Warner takes the blame (Shock! Surprise!) -- but, as importantly, it will clear the decks for Kilgore.
The attorney general is, by some estimates, rapidly approaching that mythical "dead woman, live boy" zone of political inevitability that partisan cynics always longingly hope for.
Let's say he finds that zone and is elected governor. You think he wants to spend four years explaining to 7 million Virginians why they have to pay taxes on their hair-cuts?
Pul-leeeeeese.
House and Senate Republicans -- busy looking for soft landing places in that briar patch -- are going to let Warner do that explaining for them.
Copyright 2003