Let’s put up a theorem: ‘The middle 40 votes single issue.’

In fact, let’s call it the ‘critical middle 40.’ Here we go. ‘The critical middle 40 votes single issue.’

Can you elevate that to a maxim and include it in the Book of Political Truisms? I think you can. I think you can put that one right up there with ‘All politics are local.’

OK, academics, take your shots. Of course I don’t have research budgets or staff. Fact is, I’m headed toward the New Virginia Plan. I don’t have any budget or staff. But, as we say in Meadows of Dan, here is where the cow runs through the buckwheat.

In any two-entity campaign -- parties, people, issues -- both sides, for the most part, begin with 30 percent of the likely voters in hand. (And listen, most political contests are two-entity affairs, Third Party, even Fourth Party candidates not withstanding.)

Let’s go over that again. In a two-entity campaign, both sides begin the contest with 30 percent of the likely voters. (And that’s how the universe is defined: likely voters.) These are the ideologues, the yellow dogs, the glassy-eyed believers, call them what you will. Except on rare occasions, they won’t be moved either way by any kind of campaign. And there are exceptions, campaigns that begin with this 30 percent -- and go down. But they are very rare. (And in every such case one side does not ‘win’ them. Rather, the other side ‘loses’ them. These voters can’t be wooed over. They can only be run off. There is a difference)

Let’s consider this beginning 30. There are some significant implications here. The biggest one is this: time and money spent here is wasted. These folks are already with you or against you. All the time in the world, all the money on Earth won’t move them. Forget about this block. They’re in the bag from day one.

The real contest in any campaign is for the middle 40 percent of likely voters. Or it should be. This is where it matters. This is where they’re won or lost. This is where that cow gets into the buckwheat.

There are enormous implications here. Chief among them: you only need half, plus one, to win. Half of this 40 percent is 20 percent. You come in with 30 percent. Get half of that middle 40, plus one, and you win.

Let’s restate that math in a way that will astound some folks. If you can connect to the right 20 percent of likely voters, you win. Period.

Can that be so? It’s so, brother.

What is the magic to finding that ‘connect’? Here’s where the theorem comes in. These folks are single-issue voters. Somewhere, beneath layers and layers of facade, a single issue drives them. A single issue motivates them to hit one button versus another, to vote ‘yes’ or ‘no,’ to vote Democrat or Republican , to vote ‘Smith’ or ‘Jones’. A single issue is the differentiator.

The key here is that this critical middle 40 is absolutely moveable. And one campaign or the other in a two-entity contest will move them.

Don’t misunderstand. They don’t all move to the same single issue. It may be abortion. Taxes. Guns. Tobacco. The flag. God. The lottery. Education. Gay rights. The economy. The list is a long one. There are lots of suspects here. Winning campaigns cluster enough of them together until that magic 20 percent threshold is reached. Then, guess what? One side wins. One loses.

The ‘un-decideds’ you hear so much about? They are conflicted by issue. What they are undecided about is not ‘candidate.’ They are undecided about what single issue moves them most. Only when that is resolved will they move to a candidate.

So what’s the point of all of this? Ask yourself which side’s been winning lately, and which side’s been losing. Now ask yourself why.

Democrats are getting beat by the clustering, or bundling, if you will, of single-issue voters in that critical, middle 40 percent of likely voters. Republicans do a far superior job, one issue at a time, one bundle at a time.

How many times will Democrats have to lose on some of these single-issue issues? How many times on taxes? On abortion? On guns?

When will Democrats win again? Will they ever? Depends on if, and how long it takes the brains of the Democratic Party to figure this out. Or how long it takes for Republicans to forget it.

Does this argue for Democrats to become Republican? No. For a One Party World? Of course not. Remember, you don’t need the whole 40 to win. Just 20, plus one.

Does it state the obvious -- that Democrats are not connecting? Sure it does. But articulating the obvious is a necessary thing from time to time.