While the dust settles from the governor’s speech -- okay, more like falling chunks of concrete and debris -- let us turn to other matters in the body politic. (Say, about the speech, did you catch that slurrrrrrrrp? I listened in the car and don’t know what it looked like, but it sounded like he camel-lipped it!)

But enough of that. Other matters. We’re going to make some ballot calls. That’s right. Two weeks out. And we’re going to call ‘em.

Of course Sen. Warner goes back. But, senator, this word to the wise. You keep itching for a contest, like you did this time, and sooner or later somebody’s going to give you one. If you don’t quit first.

The congressmen go back. All 11 of them. I hate to discourage anyone still working, hate to dash those dreams of glory. But. Plain fact is, there are no real contests. Here in the west, in the Ninth, it’s Boucher in a blow-out. It’s not just that the wheels came off the Katzen campaign. The differentials fell out. The drive shaft broke in two. The chassis collapsed. The clutch froze. The engine locked up. The electrical system went. And the top blew off. All at the starting line. You get the picture.

Goodlatte goes back. (Hey, Bob! Promise not to promise next time!)

The only thing resembling a race -- and not much of one -- is going to be in the new Fifth. Of course, Verr-jeel goes back, but not by the spread he’s used to. Richards is going to run some numbers on him that he hasn’t seen before. But the Charlottesville vote, the African-American vote, won’t be enough. The defection cost Goode Southside’s yellow dawg Democrats -- all seven or eight of them. And he always recovers so quickly.

Bet you this: in another thousand years you won’t hear him utter ‘pry-vee-tise’ in the same sentence with the words ‘Social Security.’ Funny. You think the stock market of late had anything to do with the vaporization of that idea? Is Goode beatable? Probably not. What would it take to make it interesting? A ‘name’ Southside, money-raising, gun-toting, tobacco chewing, anti-abortion Democrat -- with about two years of free time on his hands. And them kind are kinda scarce in these parts.

Okay, let’s see. What about the bonds and referendum stuff? I checked my math with the Oracle at Charlottesville. Sabato says both the higher-ed and parks bonds pass, higher-ed big, parks no so big. I agree on both. The penny referendum in Tidewater, says he, is 50-50. I think that one goes down.

The half-cent in NOVA? Sabato says it should pass. And it should. It has the right horses hooked to it. There is a ton of money being spent on the ‘yes’ side. (And, by the way, you can look the money up, pro and con, on all this at www.VPAP.org. The Post’s Robert Melton characterized the Virginia Public Access Project as ‘nifty’ the other day. And he’s right. It is all of that and more.)

The thing is, though … the thing is that a new, insidious dimension has entered the equation in northern Virginia -- the sniper factor. As sad and as horrible as it is, that unprecedented murder spree will have an enormous impact on the Northern Virginia vote. It undoubtedly will diminish turnout, turnout that wasn’t going to be the best under best conditions. You certainly won’t see people standing in line, particularly outside, at any of the voting precincts.

Despite the polling, despite best efforts by Warner and other proponents, despite all the money -- I think this one goes down, too. I hope I’m wrong.

Well. What else? Yes. The two ‘specials.’ In the race to replace Warren Barry in the Senate, forget about it. Forget about it. It’s O’Brien. Case closed. (Get Jim Shuler to tell you about the time he and I watched Jay preen and fuss his hair, and floss his teeth at a long traffic light in downtown Richmond. It was hilarious. Good guy, Jay.)

And that brings us to Vance’s seat. If there was ever a ‘carve-out’ seat during the redistricting, you can bet it was the Speaker’s seat. This was the ultimate ‘safe’ seat for Republicans. And if you don’t think it’s tough to take away a safe seat, go back (to VPAP) and consider recent specials here in Virginia. During the last 11 specials, House and Senate, the two sides spent nearly three million dollars. How many seats changed parties? One. I won’t bore you with the details here. Look it up.

So Vance’s old seat? There is going to be an upset in this one. Against all conventional wisdom, the Democrats are going to pick this seat up. It’s Elrod over Cline. She’s out-worked him. She’s out-raised. him. She’s got message. She’s got game. She’s got a knowledgeable, capable operation on the ground.

She’s got all the things you need to win. But it is something else, something subtle, that is going to do it for her. I have no empirical evidence. This is gut talking here. The unease being what it is in the world today, from the shooter to the stock market to foreign policy -- she’s got something that counts again in politics. She’s got maturity. She’s been around the block a few times. That is a good thing again. My gut tells me that we’re not quite as willing to let bright, snot-nosed kids run the government as we used to be.

That’s the call. Mimi beats him.

That’s the way I see them. Could I be wrong? Let me answer that one like this. I’ve eaten crow every way you can eat it -- fried, barbecued, stewed with dumplings. Get ‘em ready. I’m working up an appetite.