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A guide to political news, commentary and resources in Southwest Virginia

Barnie Day was a Democratic delegate from Patrick County from his election in 1997 through the 2001 session. A former county administrator and business owner, he is now a banker.

Place your bets

By BARNIE DAY
JAN. 19, 2004

“Our Commonwealth is at a crossroads. Do we stand paralyzed? Or do we finally embark on a path that restores the fiscal integrity, invests in our core assets and prepares Virginia for a brighter and more prosperous future?”

— Governor Mark Warner

“I make no apology for believing that what we should be committed to here is preserving for the citizens of Virginia the maximum freedom to chart their own courses, and to expend their own resources, and to prepare the best possible future for themselves and their families.”

— Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates Bill Howell

Drifting inevitably to this time, to this place, these two have slow-danced each other for a year, probing, calculating, seeking some sense of depth and will, some understanding, some advantage across this great divide.

The battle was joined when the 60-day General Assembly convened last Wednesday. Things will never be the same in Virginia when this one is over. We have come to that decision place. We will either have more government, or less. One side will win. Only one philosophy will prevail.

Del. Richard Black, R-Loudoun, a leader of the “less” side, summed it up succinctly: “It’s going to be a watershed session. There will be a decision, ultimately, over the course of Virginia, over taxes.”

Can one forecast what that decision will be, what course we will take? No. Most insiders say Howell and the no-tax House will prevail — and, on paper, he should — but there is enough hedging going on that they may later be able to say with a straight face, “Told you he’d lose.”

The breakout on this session is, obviously, not along strict party lines. Warner has Sen. John Chichester, R-Stafford County, and probably a majority in the Senate — but not all of his Democrats in either chamber. He’s going to lose one or two south-siders on any tax increase vote — in the House and in the Senate.

Why is that? There are no, strictly speaking, Democratic districts left in Southside Virginia. The few Democrats still holding seats here do so only tenuously, and only as long as they look, talk, and act like Republicans on the core Republican issues: abortion, guns, tobacco and taxes. These are Virgil Goode Democrats. They can be Democrats on the margin — education, transportation, jobs, health care, etc.— but on the core issues they have to look, talk and act Republican to survive.

So how does Warner overcome this? Can he overcome it? Yes. And he gave a hint that he understands this during his State of the Commonwealth speech last Wednesday when he clearly raised the issue of his veto powers. Bill Howell’s weakness, his Achilles’ heel in all of this is his lack of a veto-proof majority in the House.

For individual members in the House of Delegates to huff and puff about how they’ll never vote for increased taxes is one thing. To sit them down one-on-one and point out to them that every single, solitary bill they want, every pet project, every nickel in the budget, will be vetoed if they don’t is something else. Some of these folks would find it hard to go home and explain that they could deliver exactly nothing — nada, zip, squat — to the home folks. And most observers detected a resolve, a willingness on Warner’s part to do just that, if necessary, in the speech he gave last Wednesday.

And here’s the other thing: Sen. Chichester’s plan. It is bold. It is visionary in scope. It is leadership and statesmanship defined. But it’s more than that, too. It gives Warner a “get-out-of-jail” pass on the tax issue. And did you see the addendum that came with it? The locality-by-locality impact? Look at Fairfax County. Under Chichester’s plan, Fairfax County picks up an additional $104 million in car tax replacement funding in 2005 and more than $18 million a year in additional school funding in 2005 and 2006. Vote against that and try to get re-elected back in Fairfax.

So what happens? What’s the upshot of all this? On paper, certainly, Howell prevails. My money is on the governor.

Consider this for your next gift:
A 60,000 word collection of Barnie Day’s commentaries, entitled "A Mule Yule: Hey, Jesus didn’t ride in on an elephant," with an introduction by Jerry Baliles and forewords by Frosty Landon, Larry Sabato, Robert Holsworth,and Bill Wood, is available from the Democratic Party of Virginia. Contact Laura Bland, toll-free, at 1-800-322-1144