Keen observers of the political process in Virginia, those who read beyond the headlines, who, in fact, read beyond the stories that are served up daily, those who have an ultra fine, interpretative feel for nuance, detected a seismic tremor, perhaps even a shift, in Governor Mark Warner' s strategy for confronting the budget disaster this week, a shift that has been a long time coming. Time will tell if it develops further. It should. My guess is that it will.

Here' s the background. With Republican majorities in the House and Senate, and back-to-back Republican governors, Republicans have no choice but to position themselves politically against the Democratic governor. They can' t run on their own record of public stewardship. How can they? They made the mess we' re in. They can' t run against their own record. How do you run against yourself? Therein lies the Republican dilemma. What to do? They try to maneuver Warner into the role of scapegoat, a role he seemed for a while to willingly accept -- but no more.

House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith (R), of Salem, fired the first calculated shot on Labor Day, upbraiding the governor in front of a civic gathering for a lack of leadership in addressing the budget fiasco. On the surface it seemed almost laughable.

Here' s the guy who led the Republican majority in the House to a forty percent increase in state spending over the last few years, the guy who led the House in lock-step obedience to Jim Gilmore' s foolish car tax initiative, they guy who recklessly led the House in fiscal behavior that threatened the state' s cherished national bond rating -- and he' s chastising Mark Warner on the 'leadership' question?

How do you stand up in front of a civic gathering and do that with a straight face? If intellectual honesty were the issue, and he was Pinnochio, you could easily auction the timber rights to Morgan Griffith' s nose.

But it' s more than that. Politically, the Republicans have no choice. They have to adopt that revisionist, 'who, me?' persona. Remember, they can' t run on their record. They can' t run against it. Warner is all they have. The evidence is that he' s beginning to understand that, too.

Tuesday, Warner fired back. Speaking at a Prince William County ribbon cutting, Warner, according to the Washington Post, singled out local Del. Harry J. Parrish (R), head of the House Finance Committee, saying, "Chairman Parrish, you know the budget situation we have in Richmond at this point. I would challenge those who say we prioritize it, tell me where you want to cut! Is it education? Is it public safety?

"Where are we going to find additional resources -- when the state is dealing with an unprecedented budget shortfall -- to make the long-term investments that we need?"

Doesn' t seem all that profound. And it is a fair question. More than fair. And way overdue. But it is significant. That is the seismic tremor. That question, uttered in public, signals a significant change in the governor' s approach to--not just the budget issue -- but the governorship itself.

Despite the legendary business acumen he brings to the job, despite the exhaustive, unrelenting effort he puts to it, that shot he fired back Tuesday is the first sign that many of us have seen indicating that the governor understands the game he' s in, that he understands that politics is a dichotomy, a setting up of choices, and of resultant consequences. It is the first sign that many of us have seen that Mark Warner does, in fact, "get it."

Could I be wrong? Of course. But we' ll see. My guess is that the tone will be a little different from here on in. I heard that shot Tuesday. My guess is that others heard it, too.