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Finding a tom turkey and talking him into gun range could be a tad tougher than normal during the 2007 spring gobbler season which opens Saturday.

That’s the prediction of Freddy McGuire, host of vaturkey.com, a popular Web site that covers the Virginia turkey hunting scene.

“In general, I think it will be a pretty tough season overall, with obviously a few good days and a few bad days,” he told me. “The kill will be down somewhat, not a lot, but some. I think the first two weeks of the season could be pretty good and the last two weeks really bad.”

Gary Norman, turkey biologist for the Department of Game and Inland Fisheries, also doesn’t see a boom year in the making. Presenting a challenge is the fact that the bulk of the toms that hunters will pursue were hatched in 2004 and 2005. The 2004 hatch was average while the 2005 hatch was poor. For an “off-the-chart” year, you really need two back-to-back big production years

Jakes, those yet to mature gobblers hatched last fall, play a modest roll in the spring kill, and they, too, suffered a poor hatch. That doesn’t bode well for the 2008 spring season, but let’s worry about that later. The past two seasons the kill has been just over 14,000 toms, and it probably won’t be far from that mark this time.

The uncertainties that hunters are dealing with include a quick and early green-up that was followed by sub-freezing weather. The green-up generally gives turkeys a shot in the arm and starts them thinking about breeding. Norman believes an early green-up also contributes to a higher kill.

Last fall’s abundant mast crop brought turkeys through the winter in good shape and when the green-up hit they were raring to breed, McGuire said. But did the recent cold wave slow things down?

McGuire hopes so, in order “that the gobblers aren’t in a summer pattern by the last two weeks of the season.”

Some hunters have reported hearing plenty of toms, but as a rule the big birds aren’t overly vocal. It is much the same in other states, said McGuire, who has hunted Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee.

“It seems crazy to say, but the hunting has been really tough everywhere I’ve been except Tennessee.”

Even so, he has accounted for five toms, completing his grand slam in Florida.

Speaking about tough, you don’t need to explain the word to the juvenile hunters who were out Saturday for a Youth Day hunt open to kids age 15 and under. The young people should get an award just for venturing out on a morning that featured snow, high winds and temperatures that were a few degrees below dismal.

Dalton Bethel with the 18-pound turkey he took during a Youth Day hunt.

No telling how many went back to bed, but not 11-year-old Dalton Bethel of Roanoke. As he and his dad, Lacy Bethel Jr., traveled to pick up his granddad, Lacy Bethel Sr., they hardly could see the road for the blowing snow. Lacy Jr. began telling Dalton not to get his hopes too high.

But when the three of them were setting out decoys they heard a tom sound off on a nearby ridge. Grabbing their gear, they jumped into a blind where Lacy Sr. worked a box call.

“Then all of a sudden, the tom’s white head popped over the ridge, but not close enough to get a clean shot,” said Lacy Jr. A few more strokes on the box call, and the turkey came striding straight for the blind. Dalton got a good shot on a trophy tom that weighed 18-pounds and sported an 8.5-inch beard.

The same morning, Patrick Bennett, 15, killed a jake sporting twin beards during a hunt guided by Michael Pauley in Botetourt County. Bennett also killed a tom on youth day last year. It, too, had twin beards.

That kind of success is enough to make a youngster feel like turkeys aren’t as tough as some people say. But next season Bennett may not be the receipiet of so much help, he has been told.

“You are moving up to varsity next year,” said Pauley.

Youngsters checked 55 turkeys by phone Saturday compared to 85 for the same time period last year, when the season’s phone check represented 32 percent of the kill. What this means, no matter the toughness of the weather, the quality of the hatch, the variable skills of the hunters, Virginia has an impressive number of turkeys for those willing to pursue them.