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Tuesday, September 10, 2013
It seems we hear every day how climate change is causing things like the disappearance of the Arctic ice shelf, soon to be totally gone during summer. And we’re told sea level is rising rapidly, soon to cover many coastland cities and populated islands, not to mention that we should expect more numerous and severe hurricanes and tornados.
What are we to do? Should we spend millions or billions of dollars trying to make a dent in this projected scourge?
Although I am sure that we have experienced global warming for some time now, I am equally convinced that the man-made portion is negligible. Yes, not all of us “deniers” dispute that warming did occur. I do not believe it has warmed as much as many say, but I’ll grant we have had clear warming.
But something interesting is happening. As we look at the last 10 to 15 years and inspect the very latest trends, it may be that we are actually seeing a reversal coming. There has been a leveling off lately, even though the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change asserts that this is temporary.
Look what is happening. Tornados are not increasing, says Robin Tanamachi at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Laboratory in a May 24 interview with the Los Angeles Times. Even the Weather Channel speaks of a “major hurricane drought” lasting eight years — hardly the scenario of major storms growing out-of-control we’ve been warned about.
Sea levels are not rising much, at least not much now. Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change has been for 35 years using every known scientific method to study sea levels, and his conclusion is that this is “nothing but a colossal scare story,” according to the Telegraph newspaper.
I find it interesting that there have been significant snows reported in many unusual places in the Northern Hemisphere last winter.
I believe in the next several years, we will see even more clearly a cooler trend. Watch for more reports of snow in even more unusual places. And I’m convinced that the northern ice cap will begin to reverse the melting we’ve seen, though it may be the last trend to reverse. Water is slower to change temperature than air. I saw this during my time in Pensacola, Fla. It is why the Gulf water is the warmest in late August or early September although air temperatures have been declining since late July. So don’t let the ice cap be your only measure of the whole picture.
But something is causing all this. Think sunspots and solar cycles. The energy budget of our future sun is crashing as we move into a lower solar cycle, thus we will get colder, and soon. Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Russian Pulkovo Observatory is even talking about a possible approach to another little ice age. And, he says, this is not good news, for it means people and crops will suffer. Cold, not warmth, might be our future.
Oh, I have no problem with being environmentally wise. I am happy to drive a hybrid, use solar panel energy, recycle everything and basically use only CFL and LED lights.
But I am bothered when some commentaries and letters to this paper have touted the line: 97 percent of climate scientists agree that global warming is running out-of-control and is man-caused. Yet, more than 1,000 international scientists, including many current and former United Nations IPCC scientists, strongly dispute the claim of man-caused change. Even if “climate changers” are a small majority, perhaps you’ve heard the maxim: Majority may rule, but majority is not always right.
Apparently, it’s time to pause and assess the next few years of weather before we go berserk with extreme and expensive government programs that could work against us. Climate may be changing right under our noses, but perhaps not in the direction many folks are expecting.
Weather JournalRain is here; watching for snow