INDEPENDENCE -- It's just a short walk from Bill Carrico's congressional campaign headquarters to the spot on Independence's Main Street where a 1998 car wreck ended his career as a state trooper.

It was his faith in God, Carrico said, that brought him out of a coma and through a long recovery from injuries that nearly paralyzed him.

That same faith in 2001 won Carrico a seat in the Virginia House of Delegates, and this year he hopes it will lead him to the U.S. House of Representatives and a victory over incumbent Rep. Rick Boucher, D-Abingdon.

But other politicos, even some Republicans, are doubtful the Smyth County native can pull off such an upset.

Larry Sabato, director of University of Virginia's Center for Politics, wrote in an e-mail this month that "Boucher is secure in this seat for as long as he wants it, assuming no massive GOP wave in a future election or significant scandal -- neither of which seems likely."

Even Larry Linkous, who chairs the Montgomery County Republican Party, doubts Carrico can win.

"People really respect Bill Carrico," Linkous said. "But he hasn't been in the House long enough to be well-known across the district. Every time you open a mailbox, Boucher is there."

Nowhere is the disparity more apparent than in campaign contributions. So far, Carrico has raised just over $66,000 compared with Boucher's war chest of more than $1 million.

While the Virginia Republican Party has provided Carrico with volunteers and other campaign support, most of the party's money has gone to the effort to keep George Allen, R-Va., in his Senate seat, Carrico campaign manager Jordan Shaw said.

Virginia became a battleground state in the GOP struggle to keep control of Congress after Allen made allegedly racist comments at a campaign rally. That and other gaffes have given Democratic challenger Jim Webb some much-needed traction in a race that's garnered national attention for its level of mudslinging.

But mounting such a long-shot campaign against Boucher is less of a political calculation and more of a calling to serve Southwest Virginia, Carrico said.

Carrico said he understands the issues, and most importantly, the cultural and moral values of the 9th District. And he says Boucher has become complacent after 12 terms in office.

Carrico has criticized as insufficient and out of touch Boucher's focus on encouraging tourism and installing fiber-optic broadband networks to boost the faltering economy of Southwest Virginia.

Tourism jobs don't put food on the table and without industry to light up the fiber-optic network, "it's just cable in the ground," Carrico said.

Boucher countered by pointing to several new businesses he said he has recruited that will need the broadband connections, including an announcement Friday that Northrop Grumman would bring 300 high-paying jobs to Russell County.

In fact, Boucher and Carrico seem to agree on many of the solutions for Southwest Virginia's economic woes, most of which are caused by free trade and globalization that have driven manufacturing jobs out of the 9th District. About 1,000 such jobs have been lost in Galax this year alone.

Both men oppose international free trade agreements that disadvantage rural areas. Both are pro-business and favor policies that foster economic development.

And Carrico's calls to revitalize Virginia's coal industry by building clean coal-burning power plants and other clean-coal technologies echo Boucher's work over the past 20 years.

As a ranking Democrat on the Congressional Energy Committee, Boucher said next year he will be in a good position to get passed legislation that "contains roughly $3 billion -- that's billion with a 'b' -- of monies for clean-coal technologies and coal-fired generation."

While Carrico has supported a bill in the statehouse to bring a prison to Grayson County, Boucher pointed to the federal prison in Lee County he helped open that has pumped about $25 million into that economy.

"I've already done the things he would like to do," Boucher said of Carrico.

Even voters like Darlous Jones of Grayson County, who often vote Republican, see the value of Boucher's seniority in Congress.

Last week she could easily name several economic development projects Boucher has fostered in and around Grayson County, including a business incubator in Galax, a restored train depot in Fries and a veterans cemetery in Pulaski.

If Carrico were elected, "he'd be low down on the totem pole" and likely unable to match the federal money and private businesses Boucher has brought to the region, Jones said.

The 9th District poses serious challenges to any politician. It's one of the two largest congressional districts in the state, encompassing more than 20 counties and several cities. According to the U.S. census, the 9th is home to the largest elderly population. Fewer of its residents graduate from high school than any other district and more of its children live below the poverty level.

But even if Carrico loses this time around, there may be benefits in running, according to Sabato.

If Boucher runs for Senate in 2008, or unexpectedly retires, Carrico's run this year might give him an edge, Sabato said.

"Many candidates are elected on their second or even third run for the House. And every time around the track adds contacts, contributors, and voters who recognize your name."

Despite what pundits predict, Carrico said the thought of losing never enters his mind.

After all, in 2001 Sabato wrongly predicted Carrico would lose his ultimately successful bid for the statehouse.