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Sunday, November 13, 2005

Dudley win was no real surprise

But the race for the 9th District House seat may have laid the groundwork for 2007.

A campaign of sound and fury by a Democratic challenger in the 9th House district ended with a familiar result: Republican incumbent Del. Allen Dudley's strength in party strongholds was enough to win him the election.

Well-timed mailings, disorganization among Pittsylvania County Democrats and Eric Ferguson's last-minute financial shortfall didn't hurt, either.

The 9th House district race was one of the most competitive and closely observed races in the state. Ferguson, a Rocky Mount attorney with little prior political experience, turned heads by running a campaign embracing conservative rural values and claiming "Old Timey Democrats" Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman as his running mates.

Ferguson garnered even more attention when Roanoke political consultant Dave "Mudcat" Saunders joined on as a campaign volunteer. Saunders has argued that common-sense strategies can help Democrats win rural areas. He helped guide Gov. Mark Warner to a victory in rural Virginia in 2001, and he co-wrote a Simon & Schuster-published book on the subject that's due out in the spring.

Saunders' presence helped bring several big names to the 9th. "Dukes of Hazzard" star Ben "Cooter" Jones, bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley and Warner helped bring a populist edge to the Ferguson campaign. They even gave out "blue-plate specials" with RC Cola and MoonPies at the Warner appearance.

Ferguson's opponent, Dudley, has been a Democratic target since he shocked the party in 1993 when he beat Wes Naff to claim the open 9th House seat, long considered a solid Democratic stronghold. Since then he's been nearly unbeatable, losing only when he ran against Roscoe Reynolds for the Virginia Senate seat left by Virgil Goode when he was elected to Congress.

Dudley won this election -- the closest 9th race since '93 -- by running strong in areas that have always backed him, primarily in Smith Mountain Lake, Floyd County, Pittsylvania County and his home region of Penhook. Ferguson won Franklin County, running particularly well in Snow Creek and Rocky Mount.

Both sides noted an increased turnout in voters from 2003. Overall, voter turnout increased from 41 percent to nearly 49 percent.

"Certainly if you look at the numbers for 2003, I basically had more votes in about every precinct," Dudley said. "But the turnout was much higher. I think they did a good job getting the occasional voters out."

One problem cited by the Ferguson campaign was the lack of any organization among Democrats in Pittsylvania County. There, Ferguson suffered his greatest losses, receiving only 36 percent to Dudley's 64 percent.

"We weren't beat by Allen Dudley," said Joe Stanley, Ferguson's campaign manager. "We were beat by Democrats, especially the lack of any party structure in Pittsylvania County."

Ferguson and his staff said the campaign also suffered a lack of financial support, though there is some disagreement as to the cause. Stanley tends to blame Gov. Mark Warner's One Virginia PAC, while Saunders said the fault belongs not to Warner but to the House Democratic Caucus. Although both groups contributed to the campaign, the campaign said it wasn't enough.

"We made 17 phone calls to the One Virginia PAC after we were assured by the governor we would get money from him," Stanley said. "And we got nothing after he came."

The House Democratic Caucus contributed $6,000 to Ferguson's campaign, but it gave other candidates much more. Greg Werkheiser, a Democratic challenger in the 42nd House district who ultimately lost his election, received $30,793.

If there was a lack of support, it may have been due to the Ferguson campaign's decision to give the caucus a cold shoulder in the early days of the race.

"We turned away from the House Democratic Caucus because they were trying to tell us how to run the campaign," Ferguson said. "They wanted to run a rural campaign based on an urban model."

Ferguson also worked to de-emphasize the liberal aspects of the Democratic Party. That approach didn't fly with the House Democratic Caucus, said Saunders.

"The people that control the money didn't exactly like our message," Saunders said. "The money is controlled by 'Golden Crescent' politicians [of the coast], and our cultural message was diametrically opposed to their message."

Late in the campaign, however, the cutting of ties between the Ferguson and the caucus came back to haunt them. Saunders said Ferguson had planned to release an advertisement on WDBJ's "Andy Griffith" program during the closing weeks of the campaign, but ran out of money.

Allen Dudley's son, A.J. Dudley, said he believes the extra money wouldn't have made a difference.

"Eric Ferguson easily spent more than any other 9th district house candidate ever," he said. "Plenty of money was there."

A.J. Dudley notes that his father defeated Ferguson on a "good day for the Democrats statewide." He believes the victory hinged on a few days in the middle of October. First, the Dudley campaign was endorsed by the National Rifle Association. Secondly, A.J. Dudley said the campaign noticed that Ferguson's attacks were starting to backfire.

"Once they did not get the NRA endorsement, they probably got even more negative, and the backlash accelerated," A.J. Dudley said. "That's pretty unscientific, but I feel pretty strongly in my gut."

The Ferguson campaign disagreed that the attack ads backfired.

"I don't regret anything that our campaign did," Ferguson said. "It was a very well-run campaign. We had to point out why people should not vote for Allen Dudley."

Starting in mid-October, the Dudley campaign released a set of nine mailers, six paid for by state Republicans. Both sides agree the mail campaign marked a turning point.

"I think when a lot of the negative attacks were coming from the other side, those mail pieces helped set the record straight and helped make sure people knew the facts," said Peter Foster, Dudley's campaign manager. "I don't think that we were telling people anything about Allen they didn't already know. They served more to remind people more than anything else of what Allen's done for the district."

The mail pieces helped strengthen Dudley and slow Ferguson's momentum at a crucial point in the campaign. Saunders said that Republican leadership, particularly the Speaker of the House and House Majority Leader, played a masterstroke with the move.

"Bill Howell and Morgan Griffith, give him credit, they saved Allen Dudley when they paid for those seven mail pieces and really strengthened his base as an incumbent," Saunders said. "The power of the incumbency is mammoth."

Saunders said it generally takes at least two campaigns to take out an incumbent.

"That's the rule in politics," Saunders said. "It takes once to get into his core, and then you find out where you've got to work hard. We know the answers to those questions now. We've got the greatest poll you can get. It's called an election."

Ferguson hasn't yet said whether he'll run against Dudley again in 2007. If he does, though, Saunders predicts Dudley will be in trouble.

"If Eric runs again, they're going to need a lot of lot of lot of lot of lot of money," Saunders said. "You get them the second time. That's the whole point."

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