Friday, November 04, 2005
Poll portrays governor's race as virtually tied
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RICHMOND -- Virginia's major-party candidates for governor remain locked in a statistical dead heat with just four days remaining until Election Day, according to a poll commissioned by The Roanoke Times and other state newspapers.
Democrat Tim Kaine has a lead of just 1 percentage point over Republican Jerry Kilgore in the poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research -- well within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In four Mason-Dixon surveys conducted since July, neither Kaine nor Kilgore has held a lead greater than 2 percentage points.
The results come from a survey of 625 registered voters statewide conducted Wednesday and Thursday. All of the participants indicated they are likely to vote in Tuesday's election.
Kaine has the support of 45 percent of the voters who participated in the survey, a 3-point improvement from a Mason-Dixon poll conducted two weeks ago. Kilgore held steady at 44 percent and independent Russ Potts dropped a point to 4 percent. The remaining 7 percent are undecided.
Representatives of the Kaine and Kilgore campaigns said the poll accurately reflects that the race is very close. Aides in both camps said the contest is likely to be won by the campaign that has the better voter turnout operation in place on Tuesday.
"We expect it to be a very long night on Election Night," said Kaine spokeswoman Delacey Skinner.
Kilgore spokesman Tim Murtaugh said the results show "what everybody always knew was the case -- that this is a close race."
But, Murtaugh added, "We feel very confident that this race is going to break our way."
Kaine holds leads in the vote-rich regions of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Kilgore, a Scott County native, enjoys advantages in Western Virginia and Southside Virginia. The most evenly divided region of the state appears to be the Richmond area, where Kaine once served as mayor and where both major-party candidates now live. Kilgore holds a slim 2-point lead in the region, according to the poll.
Kaine appears to be making significant gains among self-described independent voters, who favor the Democrat over Kilgore by a margin of 47 to 33. Kaine held a 6-point lead among independents in a Mason-Dixon survey conducted between Oct. 18 and Oct. 20.
Skinner pointed to Kaine's gains among independents and his performance in other recent polls as indications that "momentum is moving our way." A Washington Post poll published Sunday had Kaine leading Kilgore by 3 percentage points, but Kilgore's campaign vehemently disputes the accuracy of that survey.
Kaine will campaign in Northern Virginia today and will spend the weekend in Southwest Virginia.
Outgoing Gov. Mark Warner will join Kaine on Saturday for rallies in Christiansburg, Pulaski, Wytheville, Marion, Abingdon and Honaker.
Kilgore has rallies scheduled today in Chesterfield County, Charlottesville, Lynchburg, Martinsville and Danville.
U.S. Sen. George Allen will appear with Kilgore at two stops today and at Saturday events in Northern Virginia, Virginia Beach and Newport News.





