Eric Brady | The Roanoke Times

The Roanoke River as seen from the Ninth Street bridge in Southeast Roanoke stayed within the bench cuts made by the Army Corps of Engineers.

Late Thursday morning, with rain still falling and streams rising, the National Weather Service predicted the Roanoke River would crest at 15.5 feet at about 1 p.m.

By 1 p.m., the actual river level at the Walnut Street bridge in Roanoke was more than 5 feet below that prediction.

Did the National Weather Service blow it? Not exactly. It simply used a forecast model that has yet to take into consideration one $50 million factor: Roanoke's ongoing flood reduction project, still just 70 percent complete.

"It's got to be the answer," said meteorologist Jan Jackson from the weather service's Blacksburg office.

The early crest forecast estimated more morning rain than actually fell, which caused the prediction to be off somewhat, Jackson said, but not as much as it was. "I really think that flood reduction project had an effect."

By about 4 p.m., the weather service downgraded its crest forecast to 11.6 feet -- just 1.6 feet over flood stage -- sometime before midnight.

Roanoke City Engineer Phil Schirmer was tracking the forecast against the actual river level all morning, and he liked what he was seeing.

"I don't know that I can say all of that is due to the flood control project," he said, but "everything is looking fairly positive for Roanoke."

Jan Brodmerkel, project manager for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers project, seemed unimpressed by the apparent success of her efforts. She was reluctant to take credit.

"It's really too early for us to say," she said.

But her staff had been inspecting the bench cuts -- portions of the riverbanks carved away to accommodate rising water -- all morning.

Penny Schmitt, spokeswoman for the Corps of Engineers, pointed out that Thursday's flooding, which never got above the minor flooding stage, was not the project's first test.

In June 2006, five days of rain in the area pushed the river's level to 12.8 feet. At that time, just the first stage of the flood control project was complete -- from Roanoke's sewage treatment plant in Southeast Roanoke upstream to the Ninth Street bridge.

The Corps of Engineers estimated the project helped avert $1.1 million in damages.

Since then, the project has progressed upstream to Bridge Street in Norwich. Residents of the Piedmont section of the city saw the work completed in their neighborhood more than a year ago, and were seeing the benefits of it Thursday.

"If it wasn't for that, I'd probably be taking things out of my basement right now," said John Sowers of the 900 block of Walnut Avenue. Still, five years of living along the river have taught Sowers to be cautious. By noon, he had inspected the water level three times.

Shortly after getting settled in the neighborhood with his wife, Hurricane Jeanne hit, leaving them with $10,000 worth of flood damage to their house and property. The 5-foot-9-inch Sowers said the water in his basement would have reached his chin had he been in it.

"I don't have to worry about it as much as I used to," he said.

"It's a lot better than it was. The reduction system has done some really good work," said Roy Duncan, who has lived in the 400 block of Walnut Avenue for 21 years.

"With all the rain we've had, it's [the river] looking pretty good, considering," added Duncan's wife, Lynn.

That's the payoff city and federal officials want from the $50 million that's gone into the project thus far. Schirmer, the city engineer, estimates the final cost of the project -- including related improvements like some 10 miles of greenway trail along the river -- will come to $75 million to $80 million.

Work is now under way upstream from Bridge Street to the Roanoke/Salem border, Schirmer said. Two more major bench cuts remain, he said, with one expected to be finished in the next year. The city is still acquiring property for the second cut.

The actual flood reduction work will be completed first, Schirmer said, with riverside amenities such as the extension of the greenway to follow. The city hopes to complete the project by 2012.

Staff writer Lerone Graham contributed to this report.