The Republican race to replace William Fralin in the House of Delegates will conclude Tuesday in a primary election.

In a five-way race where low turnout is expected, just about any factor -- weather, endorsements or the scheduling of high-school graduations -- could dramatically affect the results.

"In a race that's going to have this few votes cast in it, with five candidates, everything can have an impact," said Ed Lynch, a Republican strategist and associate professor of political science at Hollins University.

One example: All five Roanoke County high schools have scheduled their graduation ceremonies for Tuesday. Will that hurt former Roanoke County Supervisor Mike Wray, the only candidate from the county?

That's tough to say, but Wray thinks it will affect turnout.

"People may have family plans and forget to go out and vote," he said.

In addition to Wray, four other Republicans are seeking the party's nomination: Bill Cleaveland, a Botetourt County lawyer; Chris Head, a Botetourt County resident who owns Home Instead Senior Care; Josh Johnson, a Roanoke lawyer with the firm Gentry Locke Rakes & Moore; and Melvin Williams, a Roanoke lawyer with the firm Grimes and Williams.

The winner will face Democrat Gwen Mason, a Roanoke city councilwoman, in the general election.

In a field with little to no name recognition, Wray's experience as an elected official lent him unofficial front-runner status, at least initially. He is also the only candidate from Roanoke County, while Roanoke city and Botetourt County are each fielding two candidates.

But Wray's use of former state Sen. Brandon Bell in his campaign has made him a target for Roanoke lawyer David Nixon. Nixon is known for his criticism of GOP candidates he tags as "Republicans in Name Only," including Bell and Fralin.

Wray said he's ignoring Nixon's attacks: "You have to stay focused on the race you're in. You can't be distracted by other things."

The other candidates face opportunities and challenges, too.

All five have declared that they support conservative values, but Williams has staked out an unusual position based on his outspoken stances on social issues.

He strengthened that footing Friday by announcing an endorsement from Al Bedrosian, a former legislative candidate who ran on a strong family-values platform. In a news release, Williams wrote that the endorsement underscores he "is the one candidate who can be trusted to fight for the conservative, traditional values" held dear in the 17th District.

Williams said he has received a lot of reinforcement along the campaign trail: "There are a lot of people out there with the same beliefs, who are concerned about where our country is going, who want to raise their family, be left alone by the government and pursue their dreams. I've found that again and again. That is emboldening."

Head, who has pushed his credentials as the only candidate who owns his own business, said he also has found that his message resonates with voters, particularly in a year where the economy is the overriding issue.

"The heartbeat of our economy nationwide is small business," Head said. "I can't tell you how many people I've talked to, particularly other small-business owners, who see that as an important distinction."

In a close race with five candidates and low turnout, however, he said he's not sure about what intangibles may help or hurt him on Tuesday: "At this point, I don't know whether to pray for sunshine or rain, because I don't know what will deter my voters or bring out my voters."

Lynch said he's been impressed so far with Head's campaign: "He has really played up that businessman credential of his and distinguished himself from three of the other candidates, who are lawyers."

One lawyer has worked to use his profession to his advantage, however. Cleaveland has 30 years' experience as a prosecutor, defense attorney and substitute judge. He sees the House of Delegates as the next logical step in his work with the law.

Cleaveland said that the more he's campaigned, "the more I did realize that representing the citizens of the district isn't all that different from what I've been doing for the valley: spending time with people to find out about their concerns and problems, applying legal principles to help."

Cleaveland enlisted veteran campaign consultant Steve Mabry -- who worked in the past for state Sen. Ralph Smith and the late Del. Vic Thomas -- and has run a campaign he likens to a "refining fire" that's taught him both about the district and about himself.

Before joining Cleaveland, Mabry had worked briefly for Johnson, who is the youngest of the five candidates. Johnson seems to have turned his youth into an advantage by targeting young professionals who are helping to energize a growing Roanoke City Republican Committee.

"I'm connecting because of the energy level and because of the new ideas we've got," Johnson said. "One thing I'm hearing people are excited about is having someone with a lot of energy who's really going to get out and work hard for the Roanoke Valley."

Discounting loans, Johnson has so far outraised the other four Republicans. He's raised enough campaign cash to buy TV time to run advertisements Monday and Tuesday on CNBC, ESPN, Fox News and The Weather Channel.

Lynch said he thinks the race is anyone's to win.

"Nobody's opened up any space ideologically. No one's way out front in experience. It's going to be whoever's friends are most friendly and friend-like on Tuesday."