The Roanoke Times | File

Norfolk Southern plans to build an intermodal shipping facility at this site along U.S. 460 just inside the Montgomery County line.

When an analyst forecast last winter that 740 to 2,919 jobs would spring from the opening of an intermodal rail yard in Western Virginia, he drew upon the experience of intermodal yards that differ dramatically from a $50 million project officials now have in mind for Elliston.

Analyst Chris Behr with HDR Decision Economics had little other choice.

He did not know which of 10 proposed Western Virginia sites would be chosen, and he was not hired to speak to any Western Virginia companies.

He was tasked with running a desktop analysis. He gathered data on a handful of intermodal centers and calculated a job-growth rate for each. Then he extrapolated the experience of the other yards to Western Virginia -- guesswork, yes, but the kind of thing that goes on all the time in economic forecasting.

His January report concluded the following:

If the Western Virginia yard creates jobs as the International Intermodal Center in Huntsville, Ala., did, Western Virginia will gain 2,916 jobs over 15 years. If Western Virginia's yard is a less robust jobs engine, along the lines of the Logistics Park near Chicago, Western Virginia will gain 740 jobs over 15 years.

That's in addition to the dozen or so employees who will run the facility.

Several important caveats deserve a look, however, in a critical assessment of how much permanent job growth the region should expect after the Western Virginia intermodal facility is finished in 2010.

For one, the Huntsville intermodal yard that is the source of the most optimistic estimate for Western Virginia job growth sits on 6,080 acres of designated industrial real estate and Huntsville's airport. The Chicago yard sits on 2,200 acres of designated industrial real estate.

In fact, of seven intermodal facilities studied in the state-funded report, three are part of business parks and all are near real estate earmarked for or occupied by businesses.

Authorities who established the intermodal yard at Front Royal bought hundreds of surrounding acres for use by businesses, and the yard has helped attract 24 companies and has created 7,000 jobs.

The future site of Western Virginia's intermodal yard has neither an airport nor a large industrial park, and neither amenity is planned.

Officials have chosen to fund the Norfolk Southern-owned intermodal rail yard beside the eastern Montgomery County community of Lafayette near Elliston. The site is a narrow valley bounded by mountains on the south and the Roanoke River and Interstate 81 to the north.

Behr said Thursday that he believes the actual job growth spawned by the Elliston facility will be about 1,800 positions after 15 years -- right in the middle of the range he gave in January. If a business park is added in Elliston, the jobs would materialize sooner, he said. But it is not necessary, he said.

The location is loaded with strategic advantages, including that it is on the future east-west Heartland Corridor freight rail line and is near I-81 about 50 miles from I-77, Behr said. It could attract shipping business from throughout the region, he said.

He said surrounding businesses growing because of new, rail-enhanced access to markets could do some of the hiring, as could new businesses placing facilities near Elliston to take advantage of intermodal services. He said manufacturing jobs are a possibility. Others see warehouse and distribution jobs as likely.

At an announcement Tuesday to reveal that state funding will be available, a host of state officials predicted a regional increase of about 3,000 jobs within 15 years of the planned opening of the facility in 2010.

And officials also say it isn't going to matter that Elliston will not have a large business park beside the tracks.

Some evidence suggests that a business could be 20 miles or farther away and use the facility, said Jennifer Pickett, spokeswoman for the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation, whose agency paid HDR Decision Economics for Behr's work.

For instance, Ikea put a factory in Danville expecting to ship intermodal, the company president said this week.

Behr's analysis is the only one available. Any other estimates of the intermodal yard's effect is unclear because several key players aren't discussing it.

Norfolk Southern, which provided freight-traffic estimates on which the job forecast is based, declined to comment on its planned intermodal yard's future economic impact. It referred economic development questions to the HDC report.

While all this may suggest it is time to gear up marketing of the intermodal yard to companies, the economic development chief in Montgomery County is sitting on the sidelines right now. Bob Isner said by e-mail that because Montgomery County supervisors oppose placement of the yard in Elliston, he does not wish to discuss it publicly.

"If ultimately the intermodal facility 'is' constructed at Elliston we will then develop the appropriate marketing strategy along with our State and Regional economic development allies," Isner wrote.

The county's Falling Branch industrial park is 10 miles away.

Aric Bopp, executive director of the New River Valley Economic Development Alliance, said his office will wait until the intermodal yard is finalized before talking about it.

But real estate agent Ralph Williams of Copty Commercial Real Estate in Roanoke said he believes land is limited in Montgomery County and most of the intense, intermodal-related development is "probably going to the south in Pulaski and Wythe counties."

Chris McKlarney is chairman of the board that oversees the New River Valley Commerce Park, a roughly 900-acre business park in Pulaski County that still has no tenants. Mc- Klarney, who is Giles County's administrator, said he will have to study the intermodal center to understand how to sell it to possible park tenants. But he expressed limited optimism.

"Typically, the warehousing type projects that you think would come from this intermodal facility are not our target at this time," he said.

But John White, economic development director for the town of Pulaski, said he is pleased the facility could help bring warehousing and distribution companies to his community. He said he plans to add language to the town Web site and mention the facility when speaking to prospective companies.

"It is a potential boon for us," White said. "I have 1.2 million vacant square feet in the former Pulaski Furniture complex. A lot of it ... could be used for warehouse distribution."

Beth Doughty, who directs the Roanoke Regional Partnership, the marketing arm for the Roanoke Valley and nearby communities, said she and her staff intend to find out the kinds of companies the intermodal facility could assist and the types of jobs they represent. The partnership will then come up with a marketing plan, she said.

"I'm excited about the potential," she said.