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Sunday, March 23, 2008

Roanoke not taking leave of its census

New estimates show that after years of decline, Roanoke's population is slowly growing.

Fresh estimates released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau confirm that Roanoke seems to have stemmed the flow of residents leaving the city.

The estimates show that Roanoke grew by 229 people in 2007. That figure reflects a net gain of 167 international immigrants and 225 people who moved from within the United States. There's also a net loss of 124 people from births and deaths.

The total increase of 229 is less than half of the increase of 510 people projected in a recent report by the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. Both reports, however, seem to indicate that the city's population has become more stable after years of decline.

According to the census bureau, since 2000 an average of 170 international immigrants annually have moved to Roanoke, helping to offset what has generally been an out-migration by the city's residents. A total of 1,357 international immigrants have moved to Roanoke since 2000.

It's unclear exactly how the census bureau calculated the number of international immigrants and whether the number includes illegal immigrants. The bureau's Virginia spokesperson could not be reached for comment.

Some of Roanoke's international immigrants are refugees who have been resettled at Terrace Apartments, which are owned by Total Action Against Poverty.

Brian Townsend, assistant city manager for community development, said that the city's schools are beginning to see more non-English-speaking students.

"I think we've seen the trend begin in terms of the number of kids in the school system who have English as a second language," Townsend said.

Even with international immigrants factored out, however, Roanoke still grew by 225 residents -- a reversal of a decade-plus-long trend of decreases. Even counting this year's increase, the census bureau estimates that Roanoke has lost 3,559 residents over the past eight years.

That trend may have peaked in 2002, when 1,276 residents left the city, but it has decreased most years since. But between 2006 and 2007, the numbers swung by 505 people to produce the increase of 225.

"That's a good sign," Townsend said. But "in terms of who it is, or how they got here, it's hard to know from these estimates."

He said the city administration has worked to promote a number of housing initiatives over the past several years, including the ongoing Colonial Green development and putting money towards downtown rental apartments.

The latter, Townsend said, is "a way to grow population that's looking for an urban experience they can't get elsewhere in the region."

"The more housing options, the more people we can have move into the city," Townsend said. "We're trying to broaden our housing base, and by broadening our housing base we're hoping to broaden our appeal."

mason.adams@roanoke.com 981-3253

matt.chittum@roanoke.com 981-3331

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