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The Roanoke Times

Roanoke population change

• See a graph of Roanoke's yearly population changes since 2001

Roanoke's population has been on a steady decline for more than two decades -- but there are small signs that trend could be changing.

In fact, a new report by the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service estimates Roanoke's population increased by 833 people over the past two years: 323 in 2006 and a projection of an additional 510 last year.

The report still ranks Roanoke among the 10 Virginia localities with the most dramatic population losses since the 2000 Census. But Roanoke's trend of losing population could be stabilizing, or it may even be on the upswing according to projections in the report.

"At this point I would say it's indicating stability really more than growth," said Michael Spar, who helped produce the report at Weldon Cooper. But he said it could also indicate that Roanoke "is experiencing some sort of a mini population boom."

The report, in offering the most recent glimpse at Roanoke's overall decline, estimates the city had a population of 93,504 residents on July 1, 2007. That's about 1,400 fewer people living in Roanoke than when the U.S. Census Bureau tallied the city's population in 2000. That decline, however, is much smaller than it was three years ago. In 2005, Weldon Cooper reported that Roanoke had lost an estimated 2,240 residents since the 2000 Census.

In forecasting the population estimates, Weldon Cooper demographers look at a locality's births, school enrollment, housing stock, state income tax returns and drivers' licenses.

The report does not address why Roanoke's population may be changing or the specific demographics behind it -- but the report was certainly noted by city officials.

"That's great news, we're glad to hear it," said Brian Townsend, Roanoke's assistant city manager for community development.

Townsend said the city's surge in economic growth in recent years could be a factor in the Weldon Cooper study. Downtown buildings being renovated into condominiums and the new Carilion Clinic biomedical center are just a few examples of growth factors he mentioned.

"Certainly for us the last two to three years, economic activity has increased," Townsend said. "The amount of construction has increased. That could be why their factors have geared more toward an estimated upturn in the population."

Demographic shifts can have repercussions for localities that lose population. It can lead to reduced state funding, dwindling tax revenue, the close of businesses and decaying neighborhoods.

Roanoke's upturn in population contradicts a previous Weldon Cooper prediction that the city would continue to lose residents. Past provisional estimates indicated the city would lose, not gain, more than 300 people in 2006.

Spar said if anything, the final projections are usually lower, not higher than the provisionals, which makes the increase in Roanoke's population rare.

"What happened is very unusual for it to go up," Spar said. "That really does not happen all that often."

Roanoke's population has been dwindling steadily since the 1980 Census pinpointed the city's population at 100,427. That figure dropped by about 4,000 residents when the 1990 Census recorded the population at 96,397.

When the next census cycle came around in 2000, Roanoke's population had dropped again by almost 1,500 residents. Over the next five years, according to Weldon Cooper projections, the city lost an additional 2,300 residents during a period of steady decline.

During the same time period, the counties surrounding Roanoke -- Bedford, Franklin and Botetourt -- experienced steady growth. Franklin County has led the way with more than 10 percent growth since 2000, due in large part to residential growth at Smith Mountain Lake.

Townsend said a more concrete figure of Roanoke's population will come soon when the 2010 Census is performed. Population numbers can change quickly. According to Virginia Employment Commission numbers, for instance, Roanoke is projected to continue to steadily lose people over the next 20 years.

But Townsend said the Weldon Cooper report is a good sign for Roanoke.

"Again, it's all a matter of projection and provisions, so I think you have to understand that. No one went out and counted everybody. But it is a scientific method and it's one that they've been doing a long time, and I think they're well respected in their methodology."