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Sen. John Warner has served five terms, starting in the late 1970s.

Virginia's political future could start falling into place today, when U.S. Sen. John Warner will announce whether he's seeking re-election in 2008.

"This is the key domino to fall, one way or the other," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. "It will determine a great deal about 2008 and 2009. There are a lot of ambitions riding on what he says tomorrow."

Conventional wisdom has it that former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner would be the leading contender for the Democratic nomination. Former Gov. Jim Gilmore and U.S. Rep. Tom Davis of Fairfax County are considered possible Republican candidates. But none is likely to challenge John Warner if he decides to seek re-election.

Davis, who was in Roanoke on Thursday afternoon as part of a tour of Southwest Virginia, said he will support John Warner if he seeks re-election.

"He's been a giant in state politics over the last 30 years," Davis said. "He's become a giant force nationally."

But if John Warner retires, Davis said the senator deserves a "victory lap" before candidates start jockeying to replace him.

"I'll make the decision [to run] after November," Davis said. "We've got the state elections coming up, and I'm trying to help out with those. I don't think it's smart to distract from what the party's got going on there.

"I also have to weigh the political atmosphere. Right now the image of the Republican Party is hurting. If you gauge the atmosphere today, it's a tough time for a Republicans running statewide. You have to gauge that, particularly against Mark Warner."

John Warner's decision would not only affect those men, but also a number of state politicians reportedly interested in running for governor in 2009, including George Allen, a former Republican governor who lost his U.S. Senate seat last year to Jim Webb. John Warner's decision could also affect the balance of power in a narrowly divided U.S. Senate. And if John Warner retires, then freshman Webb, a Democrat, would become Virginia's senior senator.

John Warner, 80, is finishing out his fifth term but hardly seems to be coasting toward retirement. He made headlines earlier this month by calling for President Bush to start bringing U.S. troops home from Iraq by Christmas. And he has challenged the president and broken with the Republican Party on a number of other issues in recent years, including a vote against conviction of President Clinton on a perjury charge in 1999.

He was first elected in 1978 after losing in the Republican primary. The winner, however, died in a plane crash and John Warner was chosen as the party's nominee. He won the general election and has served ever since.

Today's announcement will take place on the steps of the Rotunda at the University of Virginia. The location seems significant: Not only was UVa John Warner's alma mater, but the Rotunda was designed by Thomas Jefferson, who in many ways is the father of Virginia politics.

"He picked the Rotunda because he believes that he owes a great deal to the University of Virginia. The law school took him in and got him off to a great start," Sabato said. "Whether he says it's the end of the road for me or it's my last campaign, either way it fits.

"The importance fits the location of the announcement."