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Sunday, September 18, 2005

Kaine, Kilgore in a dead heat

Voters remain about evenly split between the Democratic and Republican candidates.

RICHMOND - The Virginia governor's race remains a statistical dead heat even as more voters make up their minds about the 2005 election, according to a poll commissioned by The Roanoke Times and other state newspapers.

The statewide survey, conducted last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, shows Republican Jerry Kilgore with a lead of 1 percentage point over Democrat Tim Kaine. The poll also indicates that independent candidate Russ Potts is struggling to make a mark in his long-shot bid for the governor's mansion. Kilgore, the former attorney general, has the support of 41 percent of the voters surveyed. That represents a 4-point improvement from a Mason-Dixon poll conducted in mid-July, when Kilgore trailed Kaine by a single percentage point. But, with a little more than seven weeks remaining in the campaign, 13 percent of the voters remain undecided, according to the poll.

The results come from a telephone survey of 625 registered voters conducted Tuesday through Thursday. All of the participants said they are likely to vote in the Nov. 8 election. The survey sample reflects the state's population distribution and voter participation. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll shows Kaine leading Kilgore in the vote-rich regions of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. But it shows Kilgore leading everywhere else, including his native Southwest Virginia and the Richmond metro area where Kaine lives. Kilgore holds a 1-point lead over Kaine in the Richmond area after trailing the Democrat by 13 points in the July poll.

Kilgore also appears to be gaining ground with independent voters. The survey shows Kaine with a 36-to-32 edge over Kilgore among independents after holding a 9-point lead in July. But 21 percent of self-described independents remain undecided.

The Mason-Dixon results differ from a poll released Sept. 11 by The Washington Post. That survey gave Kilgore a 4-point lead over Kaine among registered voters and a 7-point lead among those deemed most likely to vote.

But representatives of the two campaigns said the Mason-Dixon poll will do nothing to shift strategy in a race where the candidates long ago sharpened their differences.

"We're pleased, of course," said Kilgore spokesman Tim Murtaugh, adding that he views the Mason-Dixon numbers with skepticism. "We feel like, all along, we've had momentum and have been consistently ahead, both in polls and now in fundraising. That said, we're taking nothing for granted and we're running like we're 10 points behind."

Kaine spokeswoman Delacey Skinner said the results come as no surprise.

"We've known for a long time that this was going to be a close race," Skinner said. "We started this race as the underdog and we feel good about where we are heading."

Potts, a veteran state senator, trails the front-runners with 6 percent - a 3-percentage point drop from the July poll. Potts badly wants to participate in a televised debate with Kilgore and Kaine on Oct. 9, but won't get invited unless he reaches 15 percent in at least two polls.

"Obviously I would like for it to be higher, but we haven't spent a penny in paid advertising," said Potts, who has a television ad debuting today.

Potts predicted his television spots will improve his name identification - which stands at just 49 percent - and his standing in the polls.

Kaine still appears to benefit from his association with outgoing Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat. In the July poll, nearly three-quarters of the voters surveyed rated Warner's performance as "good" or "excellent." And 57 percent said they approved of tax increases passed during the 2004 legislative session, which enabled Warner and lawmakers to increase funding for public schools and other state services. Kilgore has pointed to a state budget surplus as evidence that the tax increases were unnecessary.

In the latest poll, 52 percent said state taxes are "about right" or "too low." Brad Coker, the managing director of the Mason-Dixon poll, said that result could help Kaine in his heated debate with Kilgore over last year's tax increases.

The poll also indicates a lack of consensus on transportation funding, another hot topic in the campaign. Only 8 percent favor an increase in the gasoline tax to fund transportation improvements and just 13 percent support increasing and expanding tolls. But 28 percent said surplus tax revenue should be applied to road construction projects, an idea that both Kilgore and Kaine have embraced.

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