RICHMOND - Virginia's higher education leaders were smiling last week after General Assembly lawmakers resoundingly endorsed two proposals to reduce the bureaucratic burden on public colleges.

While the plans are still incomplete, it appears that college officials will get most - but not all - of the administrative freedom they sought. But what about students, both present and future, and their families? What's in it for them?

Well, that depends on whom you talk to - and whom you believe.

Critics contend that loosening state oversight could allow colleges to raise tuition through the dormitory roof, potentially pricing a college degree beyond reach of Virginia's lower- and middle-class and moving top-ranked public institutions a step closer to privatization.

University officials and their supporters counter that the long-term financial planning required in both autonomy bills will make college costs more predictable for families. And while colleges would gain additional administrative independence, the governor and legislators would retain substantial power and influence thanks to the checks and balances built into the proposals.

Much has changed since Virginia Tech, the College of William and Mary and the University of Virginia agreed in January 2004 to devote another year to developing their "chartered" universities proposal. Today's plan encompasses all of Virginia's public four-year colleges. Even the word "charter" has been dropped for the more inclusive - and less politically charged - labels of "college restructuring" and "decentralization."

What's left are two goliath-sized bills, each 40-plus pages dense with talk of management agreements, benchmarks and "objective measures of institutional performance." When translated, this legal morass would likely sound familiar to many parents: We (the state) will give you (the college) more freedom, but with freedom comes responsibility.

The ramifications of these negotiations will affect any Virginia parent planning to sign a tuition check to an in-state college in the next, say, couple of decades.

After months of negotiating, representatives from the colleges and the legislature have agreed upon most of the language in a deal where every institution would project its tuition and fee rates for the next six years based on two scenarios: Student costs if the state chipped in no additional money above the current level, and student costs with incremental financial help from the state.

Colleges would also be required to spell out how they plan to mitigate the burden on students and families through financial aid.

Virginia Tech has projected a worst-case scenario where in-state student costs would rise 7 percent annually for five years to allow the university to close an estimated $34 million funding gap and increase faculty salaries to above the national average.

Total costs, including room and board, for an in-state student at Tech rose 9.6 percent last year to an average $10,062 - among the lowest of its peer institutions nationwide. Factoring in an annual 7 percent jump in total costs, freshmen entering this fall would hypothetically see their tuition, fees and room and board costs rise by roughly $2,400 to $13,200 by the time they graduate in 2009.

"That's historic. No one has ever done long-range tuition projections in the state of Virginia," said Tech spokesman Larry Hincker.

William and Mary came in slightly higher at 8 percent, while UVa is projecting annual tuition and fee increases of nearly 10 percent with incremental state funding. That figure does not include room and board pricing increases, however.

UVa spokeswoman Carol Wood said the university is sensitive to not pricing itself out of the market. "We never look at tuition without looking at financial aid," Wood said.

Those six-year plans - and colleges' dedication to them - would serve as semi-official contracts with the state. Both the House and Senate bills contain language that would allow the governor, state higher education officials or legislative leaders to essentially revoke the autonomy if institutions stray outside their projections.

"We are going to gain more oversight over management of tuition because of the six-year plans," said Sen. Thomas Norment, a Williamsburg Republican and co-architect of the decentralization proposals.

Jesse Ferguson is executive director of Virginia21, an advocacy and lobbying organization for college students with chapters on every four-year, public college campus around the state. Ferguson, a recent William and Mary graduate, said tuition is going to rise whether or not colleges receive more autonomy.

Ferguson also pointed out that college governing boards already have the power to increase tuition without first getting approval from the General Assembly or governor. The value of the current proposals, he said, is that they will help deter the dramatic, even midyear tuition hikes of recent years.

"This legislation guarantees that tuition is going to be predictable, and it has not been in recent years," said Ferguson, who has become a well-known lobbyist in Richmond during the past year. "Whether tuition is predictably affordable or predictably stable is up to the General Assembly appropriations."