Alan Kim | Special to The Roanoke Times

Kenny Long (right), a service technician with New River Heating and Air, performs maintenance on an oil-burning boiler at a residence in Radford. With Long is Brian Broce, a trainee. Jim Keefer, sales manager with the company, recommends a furnace checkup as a way to prepare for upcoming colder weather. "You don't want to wait until the last minute and realize your furnace isn't working properly and the house is cold," Keefer said.

Cool weather this summer has meant lower cooling bills for homeowners. And the mild weather isn't likely to change too much once it's time to flip the switch on your thermostat from cool to heat, some experts say.

The first day of fall is Sept. 22.

"Usually a cool summer translates to a mild winter," said Robert Stonefield, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

This winter, Stonefield said, is especially likely to be mild because of El Nino.

El Nino, a warming of the equatorial Pacific waters, can affect the climate around the globe. This year's -- which Stonefield said is a definite -- is expected to be moderate. The last El Nino, in 2004, was considered mild.

El Nino is expected to raise temperatures to slightly above normal during December, January and February, Stonefield said.

"Not every day is going to be above normal," he said. "There could be some good snow days in there," though conditions will have to come together perfectly -- a low pressure system moving through while the air is cold -- for that to happen.

Electricity

Whatever the weather, electricity costs are slowly going up.

Appalachian Power Co. is again seeking a rate increase, this time in the base rate it charges customers to cover costs for the generation and distribution of electricity.

As proposed, the base rate increase would raise the monthly bill of a typical residential customer using 1,000 kilowatt hours by about $15.65, an increase of about 17 percent. If the Virginia State Corporation Commission approves a requested increase in a transmission surcharge, that same customer will see an increase of about 19 percent on top of an approved increase in a fuel factor rate.

On Aug. 3, the commission approved a fuel factor increase that was less than the company requested. Under Appalachian's original application, a typical customer would have paid $12.21 more a month, or 13.1 percent. Instead, the customer cited will pay an increase of $7.16 per month, or 7.7 percent.

Appalachian also has applied to the commission for a 3.5 percent increase in a surcharge that allows the utility to recover money spent on environmental compliance and maintenance of a reliable system.

The city of Radford has also raised its electric rates this summer.

In June, the Radford City Council voted unanimously to increase electricity rates by 5 percent, effective July 1.

That worked out to an average increase of $5.15 per customer each month, said Tim Longwood, the city's assistant director of electric utilities.

Actual electricity rates will increase from 7.5 cents to 9.7 cents per kilowatt hour, but the cost was offset by eliminating the fuel adjustment and wholesale power costs adjustment.

Other fuels

Natural gas bills will be lower this winter.

That's not an error.

"Gas prices this winter nationwide will be considerably lower," said Gerald Hunter, spokesman for Atmos Energy Corp., the New River Valley's natural gas distributor based in Dallas, with branch offices in Franklin, Tenn.

The wholesale price of natural gas has fallen almost 80 percent during the past year, Hunter said. He credited gas producers for finding new, prolific supplies of the flammable gas underground. In addition, factories have burned less gas during the recession, which has drawn prices lower.

In spite of the reduction, some Atmos Energy customers are likely to struggle to pay their bills during the heating season. The company offers assistance in the form of a so-called balanced billing option, which equalizes monthly payments throughout the year.

Customers looking for help are asked to call (888) 286-6700.

Users of propane also may see a reduction in their home heating costs this year, especially if they are new to the product.

"We have a whole lot of supply and not a whole lot of demand," said Mary Howell, director of the Virginia Propane Gas Association in Richmond.

Propane prices can fluctuate significantly because, unlike the government-regulated pricing of electricity, propane costs are entirely market driven, Howell said.

Consequently, supply and demand and other extenuating factors can raise or lower prices throughout the year.

Howell said her organization would like to see prices fall for users this year, but most existing propane customers are bound by contracts with suppliers that "lock in" per gallon rates over several months. Many customers are locked into contracts at last year's higher rates.

Nationally, residential prices for propane dropped from $2.22 per gallon in January to $1.82 per gallon in June, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Howell suggested that homeowners interested in renegotiating existing contracts talk to their providers. Many are willing to work with their customers, she said.

Locally, new propane customers pay between $1.79 a gallon to $2.79 a gallon, depending on their volume of usage and other factors.

Cutting costs

A furnace checkup can be a great way to prepare for the upcoming colder weather, area heating and air conditioning technicians say.

And now is the opportune time.

"You don't want to wait until the last minute and realize your furnace isn't working properly and the house is cold," said Jim Keefer, sales manager with New River Heating and Air.

Keefer said the company also offers a preventive maintenance program for homeowners' heating systems. That work can include cleaning coils and changing nozzles and filters on heating systems.

He also suggests that homeowners invest in a programmable thermostat, which can help save them money. The thermostat allows people to set different temperatures for different times of the day "so you're not paying to heat the house when no one is even in it."

Joe Havens of Cundiff Heating & Air Conditioning said the company is still working with homeowners now on air conditioning, but crews are gearing up for fall checks of heating systems.

Havens, a service manager, also recommends that homeowners have other heating systems, such as fireplaces or wood stoves, checked. And, while it can be expensive, another way to help with home heating is to replace older windows.

Havens also said that homeowners can check on any federal tax credits available for increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

For more information, visit www.energystar.gov.