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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Experiment could lead to better flood warning

A Virginia Tech student has collected data on some 300 streams in Pulaski County.

Sarah
Prescott

Sarah Prescott

Anthony Phillips

Anthony Phillips

This year, rain has brought flooded yards, washed-out roads and mudslides to the New River Valley.

Anthony Phillips, a rising senior at Virginia Tech, is working on a project to better predict some of those problems.

The 22-year-old has spent the summer driving around his native Pulaski County in a car filled with laptops, maps, data sheets and GIS systems and collecting data on some 300 streams in the county and how close they are to roads.

Phillips plans to compile that data -- along with photos taken by his fiancee, Sarah Prescott -- into a searchable database for the National Weather Service in Blacksburg.

That database, along with other data such as the soil type and vegetation of an area, could one day allow forecasters to predict flooding on a certain roadway 30 to 60 minutes before it happens, said Steve Keighton, science officer for the weather service.

"It's a good start to something," Keighton said. "In a lot of ways it's an experiment."

Phillips finished data collection last week and is now working to analyze it. His research is due to be presented to the weather service and the McNair Scholars Program, a research scholarship program at Virginia Tech he's a part of, in a few weeks.

If the predictions prove successful, the program could be expanded to other counties, depending on available resources, Keighton said.

"It's a unique situation to have a student volunteer so interested in helping us collect information," he said.

To compile the data, Phillips uses maps and GIS to determine which streams are within 25 feet of a road. He measures the area and uses a mathematical equation to determine how likely the area is to flood based on the proximity of the road to the stream. Then Prescott, 19, documents the area in pictures.

Phillips color-codes the map according to the likelihood that a flood could occur. Red means a flood can occur if the stream rises by as little as a foot and a half; blue means a flood isn't likely.

He has maps and flood data dating back to the 1950s, but Phillips said his best sources have been local, curious people.

"Residents see this vehicle with all these instruments and they ask, 'What are you doing?' " Phillips said.

After explaining the project, people often want to share their stories about previous floods and damages, he said.

"I've gotten some really good feedback that way," he said.

Pulaski County is the first area to be researched in such detail, partly because of Phillip's enthusiasm, Keighton said.

Meteorology is something Phillips has been interested in since middle school. He said he took some meteorology classes in high school and is studying geography at Tech with a focus on meteorology.

Meteorology is also what helped lead him to Prescott while at Pulaski County High School.

An interest in weather led both to meteorology class -- although Prescott, an aspiring firefighter, considers it a hobby.

Phillips said he plans to pursue a master's degree in the subject.

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