Saturday, September 09, 2006
Senate race a close one, poll suggests
Negative publicity has reduced George Allen’s once-sizable lead to just 4 percentage points.
The controversy surrounding U.S. Sen. George Allen’s campaign trail remarks in August has helped turn his re-election race into a close contest, according to a poll conducted for The Roanoke Times and other Virginia newspapers.
Allen, the Republican incumbent, leads Democrat Jim Webb by just 4 percentage points — 46 to 42 — in a survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. Allen’s lead has diminished by 12 points since a Mason-Dixon poll conducted in July, even though Webb was barely seen on the campaign trail for much of the summer.
The erosion of Allen’s lead is largely because of negative publicity the senator received for remarks he made to a Webb campaign volunteer during an Aug. 11 rally in far Southwest Virginia. Allen directed his audience’s attention to the Webb volunteer, a college student of Indian descent, and twice called him “macaca.” The term is considered a racial slur in some cultures.
Allen apologized for his comments in public and in a personal phone call to the Webb volunteer. But the controversy appears to have had at least some effect on Allen’s support, according to the poll.
While most voters said the “macaca” comment did little to change their minds about the race, Allen’s unfavorable rating increased from 23 percent to 31 percent between July and September. The percentage of undecided voters dropped from 20 percent to 12 percent, with Webb the apparent beneficiary of that shift. Webb’s support among black voters increased from 39 percent to 73 percent.
“It’s pretty easy to draw a straight line from that to the 'macaca,’ ” said Brad Coker, the managing director of the Mason-Dixon poll.
The results come from a telephone survey of 625 registered voters conducted Tuesday through Thursday. All of the poll’s participants indicated they are likely to vote in the Nov. 7 election. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Allen has a 9-point lead over Webb in Southwest and Southside Virginia and greater margins in the Shenandoah Valley and the Richmond area. But Webb holds a 13-point lead in vote-rich Northern Virginia, an area that was critical to the 2005 victory of Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine.
Allen, a former governor, began his campaign for a second Senate term getting national attention as a possible 2008 presidential candidate. He has enjoyed a sizable advantage in campaign finances and has been on statewide television for more than a week with ads promoting his candidacy.
Webb adviser Steve Jarding said the poll results suggest that Allen’s apparent advantages have been neutralized by the flap over his “macaca” comment and his association with President Bush, who remains unpopular in the state.
“I think Virginians saw a side of George Allen that they didn’t know, or didn’t think they knew, and it was pretty powerful,” Jarding said, referring to Allen’s videotaped comment to the Webb volunteer.
Allen campaign manager Dick Wadhams acknowledged that the controversy contributed to the erosion of the incumbent’s lead, but argued that Allen remains in a strong position as the campaign enters the stretch run. Wadhams contrasted Allen’s busy August schedule of public appearances with Webb’s near absence from the campaign trail and predicted that Webb’s support will wane when he is drawn into debates over policy issues.
“This is still a race with an incumbent who knows who he is and knows what he believes in versus an opponent who has not taken a position on any major issues,” Wadhams said. “I can’t wait for the next 60 days.”
Just 42 percent of voters rated Bush’s job performance as “excellent” or “good,” while 41 percent gave the president a “poor” rating. Those numbers differ little from the July Mason-Dixon poll.
“It’s an ugly time to be an incumbent and especially an incumbent who is a rubber stamp for President Bush,” Jarding said.
Webb’s campaign treasury was nearly depleted during his campaign for the Democratic nomination, and he spent much of the summer trying to close the funding gap between himself and Allen. He skipped events on the traditional Labor Day kickoff of the fall campaign to spend time with his son Jimmy, a Marine lance corporal bound for duty in Iraq.
Wadhams called Webb’s decision to spend time with his son “perfectly understandable.” But the Democrat’s sporadic public appearances earlier in the summer raise questions, Wadhams said.
“It’s clear that our opponent does not like to be around people,” Wadhams said.
Webb, a decorated Vietnam veteran, served a brief stint as secretary of the Navy and in other defense-related posts during President Ronald Reagan’s administration. Webb’s first television ad, which will begin airing Monday, features footage of Reagan praising Webb. On Friday evening Nancy Reagan called on Webb to stop using the footage of her late husband in the campaign ad, saying doing so is “neither authorized nor appropriate.”
Allen’s campaign and some former Reagan administration officials also have denounced the ad, saying it dishonors Reagan’s memory.





