Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Editorial: Southwest Virginia's smooth economy
The region's economic output isn't as volatile as many other metropolitan areas.
The Roanoke and New River valleys are not bursting at their economic seams. Raise your hand if that comes as no surprise. Now put it down because only the worst pessimist finds no upside to the region's slow but steady growth.
The Roanoke Times' DataSphere recently pulled together data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. From 2001 to 2005, the value of goods and services sold and produced in the region -- the local gross domestic product -- totaled $15.8 billion.
The federal bureau measures GDP for more than 300 metropolitan areas around the nation. Roanoke's $11.5 billion ranked middling among them. The New River Valley's $4.34 billion came in lower but with fewer people.
Both metropolitan areas saw minimal growth during the five years of data. Roanoke's GDP grew 1.35 percent and the New River Valley's a tepid 1.41 percent.
So Southwest Virginia is not going to set any records for economic growth. Growth in places such as Northern Virginia, Tidewater and Richmond will top this part of the state for the foreseeable future.
This region has struggled to reinvent itself as old-style industries left town, replaced by new ones -- but seemingly never enough. The railroads declined; health care rose. In Blacksburg, Virginia Tech drives research and startups.
Roanoke, Salem, Radford, Christiansburg, Blacksburg and the surrounding areas can all do better. Local leaders must continue to fight for economic development and investment. Communities that are not growing wither.
Yet there is some good in the numbers.
Though the region is not growing rapidly, its economy is largely recession proof. We are the slow and steady tortoise of the economic race. Notice that the most recent GDP figures come from 2005, right before the housing bubble burst and the economy started to tank. The rapid growth in many areas has tapered off or even reversed, but that has not appeared in the data.
One needs to look no further than the housing market for evidence of our recession-resistant economy. No, the region never fully rode the bubble, but today it also is not seeing the devastating collapse hitting other communities.
There is no need to despair. The tortoise in this race probably will not win in the long run, but he will have a smoother ride on the way and still finish respectably.
