Saturday, December 29, 2007
Editorial: Pakistan on the verge
Bhutto's assassination crushed the best hope for a stable and democratic Pakistan. Negotiating the dire path ahead will require great skill and diplomacy.
From the RoundTable blog
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The strategic importance of Pakistan in the war against Islamic extremism cannot be overstated.
After the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan -- which President Pervez Musharraf supported -- both the Taliban and al-Qaida found sanctuary in Pakistan's remote tribal regions.
Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was the best hope for Pakistan to reject extremism in favor of a modern, democratic and secular government.
Her assassination is a crushing blow to efforts to bring stability to this nuclear-armed nation.
The chaos that follows her death will make it far more difficult for the increasingly unpopular Musharraf to cling to power.
The Bush administration helped forge the uneasy coalition between Musharraf and Bhutto, which Musharraf strained to the breaking point when he imposed martial law and placed Bhutto briefly under house arrest.
The United States is left with few options, none of them good.
"U.S. policy is in tatters. The administration was relying on Benazir Bhutto's participation in elections to legitimate Musharraf's continued power as president," Barnett Rubin of New York University told The Washington Post. "Now Musharraf is finished."
It was a high-stakes gamble from the beginning. Musharraf and Bhutto could barely stand each other, and many State Department officials doubted they would be able to create a working relationship.
In fact, suspicion of complicity in Bhutto's assassination fell almost immediately upon Musharraf. While it is unlikely that he was actually involved -- he seemed to realize she was his best hope for holding onto power -- those suspicions will not die easily.
As The New York Times argued in an editorial, the Bush administration must recognize the folly of tying its hopes for a more stable Pakistan to one or two individuals.
Pakistan has some remarkably resilient institutions. Musharraf must be pressured to reinstate one of those: an independent and impartial Supreme Court. The Pakistan military, Musharraf's last, most important base of support, will also play a very important role in the coming weeks.
Pakistan is on the brink of disaster. Civil war is a distinct and disturbing possibility.
The United States must do what little is in its power to help avert this crisis, and it must do so with more tact, delicacy and subtlety than the Bush administration has ever demonstrated.
