Sunday, October 29, 2006
Bet on climate change
Christian Trejbal
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From the RoundTable blog
One of the great things about living close to a major university like Virginia Tech is the talks.
Anyone with a passion for philosophy, a love for history, an infatuation with mathematics or a passing interest in current events can choose between lectures and colloquia to satisfy their intellectual desires. Those who get off the couch are rewarded not just with knowledge and insight but also with a chance to sit elbow-to-elbow with experts who think about complex issues every day and are ready to share.
Some talks are for specialists and will leave laypeople behind, but for every obscure "On Recent Progress of the Initial Boundary Value Problems of the Korteweg-de Vries Equation," there is a "Changing Climate, Uncertain Future: Facing Global Warming."
The global warming forum, organized by the Choices and Challenges project at Tech, will take place Thursday and will feature a panel of researchers from around the country. They bring a wealth of interdisciplinary knowledge with specialties including the science of climate change, the politics and the philosophical underpinnings.
It will take place at the Lyric Theatre in Blacksburg at 11 a.m. Warm-up and follow-up discussions will bookend the panel. Details are available online at choicesandchallenges.sts.vt.edu.
It's just too bad that it is scheduled for a weekday morning. People have work, and global warming is not something the New River Valley, Virginia, America and the world can ignore.
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Climate change, after all, affects us all no matter where we live or how wealthy we are. When precipitation patterns shift and average temperatures rise, humans will face a collective challenge that will require a collective solution.
There are disbelievers to be sure. Global warming skeptics follow a long tradition of doubt.
Respectable people denied that the Earth is round or that it revolves around the sun. The depth of their beliefs, however, made them no less wrong. At some point, rational thinkers acknowledge the overwhelming scientific evidence and admit their mistakes.
The consensus among experts is that human activity contributes to global climate change and it will have far-reaching effects.
Yet the doubters are the people least likely to attend Thursday's event. "It's just a bunch of greenies," they might tell themselves. "The president says there's nothing to worry about."
I trust the scientists more than the president, but expertise will not sway those who are blind to the evidence.
Instead, the doubters might consider an alternative line of reasoning, a little twist on Pascal's Wager.
Blaise Pascal was a 17th-century French philosopher, mathematician, physicist and all-around smart guy who argued that as rational agents, humans would be foolish not to bet on the existence of God.
His analysis had plenty of holes, but it still illuminates the choice humanity faces with climate change.
Either global warming is happening or it is not.
Suppose it is. If we change our ways and take steps to mitigate our effects on the weather, we could prevent a global environmental crisis that would cost far more than the upfront investment in change.
If, instead, we selfishly sacrifice nothing now, the long-term effects will be devastating.
On the other hand, suppose global warming is just a fairy tale. Then whether we act to prevent it will not matter.
The choice is either to bet global warming is false and risk everything or to put some money on the table and perhaps hit the jackpot. Global catastrophe in exchange for short-term savings or a healthy world for us and our children at some financial cost now, not to mention the other benefits that would accrue from doing things cleaner, smarter, better.
The rational wager, Pascal would conclude, is spending our money on reducing greenhouse gases in hopes of the big payoff. The cost is insignificant compared to the potential outcomes.
What are the costs? What are the real potential outcomes? Why are irrational people making the wrong gamble?
Those are good questions for both the skeptic and the believer. Thursday's climate change forum is an opportunity for people to hash out some answers.
Where else, but in a university town?
Christian Trejbal is an editorial writer for The Roanoke Times based in the New River Valley Bureau in Christiansburg.
