Sunday, August 19, 2007
Could America be the next Rome?
Dan Radmacher
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From the RoundTable blog
Is the United States on the same fateful trajectory as another great republic: Rome? David Walker, comptroller general of the United States, makes a compelling argument that the nation is headed down the same path as that long-extinct empire.
In a speech earlier this month to the Federal Midwest Human Resources Council and the Chicago Federal Executive Board, Walker -- head of the Government Accountability Office -- warns of the similarities between Rome prior to its fall and the United States today:
"The Roman Republic fell for many reasons, but three reasons are worth remembering: declining moral values and political civility at home, an overconfident and overextended military in foreign lands, and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government."
Walker's focus has been almost entirely on the third factor. "Simply stated, America is on a path toward an explosion of debt. And that indebtedness threatens our country's, our children's and our grandchildren's futures. With the looming retirement of the baby boomers, spiraling health care costs, plummeting savings rates and increasing reliance on foreign lenders, we face unprecedented fiscal risks."
If the nation does not get off this path, politicians in the not-too-distant future will have two grim options: raise taxes to unprecedented levels and cut back essential government services. A combination of the two would undoubtedly be necessary.
The difficulty is finding the leadership to take the federal government off what Walker calls autopilot. Politicians must be willing to take on the sacred cows of entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security and find new sources of substantial revenue.
To work, this must be a broad, bipartisan effort. As Walker says, "At both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue and on both sides of the political aisle, we need leaders who will face these facts, speak the truth, partner for progress and make tough choices. ... So far, there have been too few calls for fundamental change and shared sacrifice."
Indeed, a request for national sacrifice has been a foreign idea to leaders of both parties. Even in the midst of a hugely expensive war, President Bush is pushing for even more tax cuts. The Democrats in control of Congress, for their part, have shown no stomach for meaningful entitlement reform.
Walker has been taking his message around the nation in a "Fiscal Wake-up Tour" that includes a broad ideological spectrum of concerned economists who also see the nation headed off the rails.
The problem, even with such a dramatic message, is getting heard above today's partisan din. Finding in today's shallow political class the "men and women with courage, integrity and creativity" Walker believes are necessary to address this problem is another huge problem.
But there is some hope. The people showed some signs of restlessness in the 2006 elections that ousted the Republicans from power in Congress.
Polls show continued dissatisfaction. It's good for President Bush when he reaches a 30 percent approval rating. Congress gets about half that.
That dissatisfaction must be expressed at the polls in 2008. As Walker said, "How America looks in the future is largely up to us. 'We the People' are ultimately responsible for what does or does not happen in Washington."
If "We the People" want something to happen in Washington different from what has been happening, then politicians must be convinced that the electorate is ready for hard choices, and that the people understand that short-term pain is sometimes necessary to avoid long-term catastrophe -- which is surely where the nation is headed.
This nation needs leaders who will think of consequences far beyond the next election. We need leaders who will look beyond narrow partisan interests and power struggles to embrace difficult truths.
Walker calls for a first-ever top-to-bottom review of federal programs and policies to determine which still make sense and which should remain priorities.
In the current climate, such a review would quickly be buried under a blizzard of partisan talking points.
I believe Walker is right. The United States could easily meet the same fate as Rome. Avoiding that will take leaders of a caliber the nation hasn't seen in generations.
Radmacher is the editorial page editor of The Roanoke Times.
