Sunday, November 08, 2009
Virginia voted for gridlock on Tuesday
Dan Radmacher
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From the RoundTable blog
The decisions made by Virginia voters Tuesday will be most acutely felt on the state's highways and roads. The election of Bob McDonnell as the commonwealth's next governor and the gain of at least five more Republican seats in the House of Delegates guarantee that nothing of substance will be done to address the groaning, creaking, deteriorating transportation infrastructure for at least four years -- unless something happens before then to thrust the crisis dramatically into public consciousness, such as a bridge collapse.
Folks around here might think the transportation problem is a regional issue, affecting only Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads where congestion is most severe. But it will have a huge impact on every part of the state in at least two ways.
First, the two regions where congestion is most severe are the economic engines of the state, providing much of the revenue that funds state government.
Business leaders in those regions have been getting increasingly frantic in their warnings about the economic impact of doing nothing.
In July, the Greater Manassas-Prince William County and Prince William Regional chambers of commerce and other business groups signed a resolution practically begging the General Assembly to raise taxes to pay for transportation improvements.
Why would business leaders do that? Because the gridlock is like "paying a tax in the form of lower productivity," as Laurie Wieder, director of the Prince William Chamber of Commerce, put it in an article published by Inside NoVa. Wieder noted that some sales and engineering firms can't do business before 10 a.m. or after 3 p.m. because their employees can't get anywhere to meet with clients.
If economic growth in NoVa and Hampton Roads stalls because the infrastructure can't support it, the ramifications will be felt statewide.
The second impact will come as dwindling transportation dollars get focused toward only the highest-priority projects.
Interstate 81, becoming ever more clogged with truck traffic, will fall farther down the list. Money for constructing the proposed Interstate 73? Not in my lifetime.
We may not have the crying need for upgraded roads that they do in Virginia's more prosperous parts, but there are projects on the drawing board that would improve safety and open opportunities for much-needed growth. They'll never get off that drawing board to become reality without a significant influx of new revenue.
Even before the recession sucked billions more out of the state budget, there was widespread agreement that Virginia's transportation revenue falls about a billion dollars a year short of the state's needs.
That may be understating the situation. NoVa business leaders cited the need for more than $100 billion in unfunded transportation improvements in their resolution.
How could it have gotten so bad? It's simple. The needs have grown while the bulk of transportation revenue continues to come from a flat per-gallon gasoline tax that hasn't been increased in more than 20 years. Had that tax simply kept pace with inflation, it would bring in nearly twice as much revenue -- about $1 billion extra a year.
McDonnell got a lot of mileage out of his transportation plan, even though the plan is mostly a rehash of past failed ideas, thefts from the general fund and a load of wishful thinking. He hammered opponent Creigh Deeds for acknowledging the need for new revenue.
The governor-elect and his like-minded compatriots in the House of Delegates have refused to even talk about increasing the gas tax. Though a gas tax increase is far from a perfect solution, it's hard to imagine another source, or combination of sources, that could raise close to the necessary amount of money.
Tuesday's election all but guarantees that there will be no gas tax increase for at least four more years. So, either the transportation infrastructure in Virginia will continue its accelerating decline or the general fund -- already depleted by a nationwide recession -- will get raided. Most likely, both will happen, since it's doubtful that enough money could be diverted from the general fund to make a real difference.
As you sit stalled in traffic or sandwiched between two speeding 18-wheelers on I-81; as you watch Virginia struggle to emerge from the recession as its two most prosperous regions drown in congestion; as even maintaining existing roads becomes a fiscal struggle, just remember that this is what Virginians said they wanted on Tuesday.
Radmacher is the editorial page editor of The Roanoke Times.
