Monday, June 02, 2008
A matter of personal risk assessment
Steve Huff
Recent columns
From the RoundTable blog
Fresh out of medical training I made the mistake of asking patients if they owned guns. I quickly learned either to skip the question or explain my intentions beforehand. In a good-hearted attempt to promote gun safety, I found myself accused of colluding with the "government gun grabbers."
The question was useless anyway. Most every family in this area has guns: rifles and shotguns in racks; handguns in the car and next to the bed.
It made me wonder if I needed one.
The NRA, scores of bloggers and many who wrote this paper about Seung-Hui Cho's rampage suggest that it is not just in my best interest to carry a gun, but that it is in the best interest of society.
Not so, say gun control advocates. Gun crime rises and falls with the number of available guns. The key, they say, is to restrict guns.
The problem with that, reply gun rights advocates, is enforcement. Gun bans everywhere -- Scotland, Australia, Washington D.C. -- have failed to curb gun violence and, in some cases, have increased gun violence. Gun bans, they say, deprive only the innocent of weapons.
That is a myth, reply gun control advocates. Careful review of the data shows that gun control laws work. Countries with fewer guns have fewer gun deaths and crimes.
Maybe, respond gun rights advocates, but America is not just another country. We have the Second Amendment, which protects our right to bear arms.
Really? ask gun control advocates. Are you part of a militia? Are you stockpiling an arsenal to protect your state against the U.S. Army?
Don't have to be, reply gun advocates. It's an individual right. Read the Constitution. It's plain as day.
Phew.
What is the right way look at this? Is a gun a personal insurance policy that we hope we never need to use? Is it legitimate sports equipment? Or do public health issues trump those priorities? If so, which is safer, gun restriction or gun promotion?
Here's what goes through my head: Say I have a .44 in my bedside table. What are the chances I will need it? If I do, will I get to it in time? Will I use it to my advantage? Should I keep it loaded? Safety on or off? Can I trust my 10-year-old to curb his curiosity? His friends?
A deeply flawed but commonly cited survey from 1995 by Kleck and Gertz asserts that guns were used in self defense 2.5 million times per year. A 1997 analysis (published in the same journal, the Journal of Criminal Law & Criminology) suggests that the estimate is inflated by an order of magnitude or more.
Even 100,000 episodes of defense-by-gun seems significant to me.
On the other hand, a recent commentary in the New England Journal of Medicine states that having a gun in your home increases the risk of suicide by 90 percent to 460 percent and homicide by 40 percent to 170 percent -- for every person in the home.
How do you know if guns will help or harm you?
It seems that owning guns could help you under certain conditions: If you are physically and mentally sound, are well-trained, are at high risk for being attacked and/or enjoy the sports of shooting or hunting.
On the contrary, guns might be more likely to result in harm if you are depressed or unstable, drink too much, use drugs, have young children, can't see well, are uncoordinated, out of practice and/or are at low risk for being attacked.
It is difficult to weigh the cold heft of self-defense against the wispy concept of public health. One statistic clasps them together: Far more gun deaths in 2005 resulted from suicide than homicide (17,002 vs. 12,352). Accidents added another 789. A gun might protect you from criminals, but what about yourself?
Unfortunately, there is no magic formula in which to plug all those variables. What protects an individual may endanger society and vice versa.
From a constitutional perspective, it's up for grabs; expect a 5-4 ruling from the Supreme Court on the D.C. gun ban case. From a public health perspective, the body of legitimate scientific evidence supports gun control. Personally, you must assess your own risks and benefits.
In my own home, guns generate more worry than comfort; I don't want one. Based on the tone of the debate, though, I may need to reassess my risk after this is published.
Huff, a family physician from Patrick County, is a Roanoke Times columnist.
