www.roanoke.com

On Thursday, there will be a public hearing on Roanoke's 200910 budget. The hearing meets a legal requirement. However, it is extremely unlikely anyone will provide meaningful and convincing input. The budget is a done deal, and congratulations are already flowing like water about how hard everyone worked, etc.

What we have is a plan that matches estimated revenues the city will receive against expected expenses that will occur in the coming 12-month period, starting July 1. A lot can change in 12 months. Frankly, I have no idea how good the estimates are for revenues or expenditures. Forecasts are projections of future events based on experience. The reality is that the current economic environment is so chaotic, experience may not be a solid basis for predicting future events. We could be in for some big surprises.

The Roanoke City Public School system knows where it stands. Almost 90 percent of its costs are for people. The school system has to hire all the teachers it will need in April and issue them binding contracts at that time. Unfortunately, any significant increases in costs for the 10 percent of the schools' budget for goods and services will throw things out of whack and those increases cannot be predicted.

Councilman Rupert Cutler, demonstrating his six years prior experience as a council member, expressed concern about "sharing the pain" during a joint city council and school board meeting. His question was foolish and premature, but the results are now in. The school system's pain is 89 employees who will not have jobs next year. The city government's pain will be zero employees losing their jobs.

The layoff word isn't used at city hall because it is bad for morale. It appears Joyce Johnson will no longer be secretary for the mayor. However, another position within city government will be found for Johnson. I'm sure the 89 folks at the school system who will be out of work would like to have that choice.

We taxpayers get to absorb all the pain, since a reduction in force at city hall was not considered nor staffing requirements even reviewed. Exactly how much pain won't be known until the budget is implemented and, of course, the pain won't be equal across the board. Those who don't use public transportation aren't going to notice the reduced hours of operation. Those living in apartments could care less about leaf pickup. An increase in the prepared food tax, as suggested by some, would probably hit the tourists more than us. I, for one, plan on eating more frequently in the county; I'm sure others will too.

What I didn't see during this year's budget process was any innovative thinking, just the usual mindless management practices. Maybe they'll suffice for the coming year. I'm skeptical.

They won't work for the following year, 2010-11, which will make this year's problems look like a walk in the woods.